Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV (VIST)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.02-8.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.08 → 10.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VIST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margins remain around 70% | Vista Energy is expanding its shale operations, targeting 70% adjusted EBITDA margins. | Intact | EBITDA margins fall below 65% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical Energy exposure, meaning business conditions can move with the wider economy and sector. The long-term thesis is insufficiently established because recent financial-performance history is too limited to assess it, while the near-term record includes consecutive earnings misses.
The evidence does not provide enough valuation detail to describe VIST as cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or to state what earnings expectations are already reflected. The priced-in assessment flags turbulence in the sector but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Near term, continued earnings misses remain a risk, with a 40% estimated chance of a miss at the next report. The broader Energy backdrop is a tailwind, and macro context improved, but the evidence does not establish a multi-year financial trajectory.
The sector tailwind may persist if bellwethers COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and raise guidance; weaker results or guidance could remove that support. A further weakening in jobs, following a three-month average of 51,000 monthly gains, could also raise recession concerns and weigh on cyclical Energy names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the setup combines a supportive sector backdrop with unresolved earnings execution and limited evidence for judging the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. |
| Intact |
| Production growth falls below 5% YoY |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth remains strong | A supporting condition in VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY | Revenue growth: 83.39% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202683.388446 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$167.46 → $10.40 · observed estimates
$4.31B → $4.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $167.46 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $167.46 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $167.48 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $167.48 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $167.48 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $167.48 | $4,314,500,190 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $178.87 | $4,304,480,820 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $178.87 | $4,304,480,820 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $178.87 | $4,304,480,820 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $178.87 | $4,304,480,820 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.94 | $4,333,439,071 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.92 | $4,324,158,968 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.92 | $4,324,158,968 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.92 | $4,324,158,968 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.59 | $4,304,355,238 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.59 | $4,304,355,238 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.23 | $4,226,825,634 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.72 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.70 | $4,183,628,081 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.81 | $4,206,265,717 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.81 | $4,206,265,717 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.81 | $4,206,265,717 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.08 | $4,260,743,869 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.56 | $4,309,015,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.56 | $4,309,015,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.86 | $4,356,265,213 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.16 | $4,402,107,505 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.21 | $4,394,796,264 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.21 | $4,394,796,264 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.21 | $4,394,796,264 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.21 | $4,426,616,637 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.49 | $4,491,170,275 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.39 | $4,485,427,522 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.40 | $4,497,924,803 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.40 | $4,497,924,803 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.40 | $4,497,924,803 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.40 | $4,497,924,803 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.40 | $4,497,924,803 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.