VST
Vistra Corp.NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, VST has a composite score of -5.9, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by various factors, including an unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut and if the utilities sector trend weakens. Favorable scenarios include potential improvements in sector trends and guidance raises. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.74
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.08 → $1.97 (-5.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 30.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase Adjusted EBITDA and FCFgrowthmixed45% progress
2/26: “Guidance: '2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA is $6.8B to $7.6B. Revenue grew from $4.25B in 2025-Q2 to $4.949B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards this goal.
- 2.Execute share buyback programcapital allocationmixed37% progress
4/28: “Material Event: 'Vistra Operations completed its previously announced private offering of $4.0 billion.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a $4.0 billion private offering, which supports the execution of the share buyback program. However, no specific buyback figures are provided, indicating limited progress in actual buybacks.
- 3.Achieve accretion from acquisitionscapital allocationmixed37% progressprovisional
1/5: “Guidance: 'Acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single digit Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share accretion in 2027.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expects mid-single digit accretion from acquisitions by 2027. Current financials do not yet reflect this accretion, indicating that the impact is anticipated but not yet realized.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 41%; 252d 49%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.14 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 19/100, drawdown 31/100, beta 14/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase Adjusted EBITDA and FCF
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow before Growth.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA is $6.8B to $7.6B. Revenue grew from $4.25B in 2025-Q2 to $4.949B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards this goal.
45%CEO/CFO:“Guidance: '2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Guidance: '2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion.'”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
- #2
Execute share buyback program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Implement the announced share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a $4.0 billion private offering, which supports the execution of the share buyback program. However, no specific buyback figures are provided, indicating limited progress in actual buybacks.
37%CEO/CFO:“Material Event: 'Vistra Operations completed its previously announced private offering of $4.0 billion.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Material Event: 'Vistra Operations completed its previously announced private offering of $4.0 billion.'”
- #3
Achieve accretion from acquisitions
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving accretion from recent acquisitions to drive growth.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expects mid-single digit accretion from acquisitions by 2027. Current financials do not yet reflect this accretion, indicating that the impact is anticipated but not yet realized.
37%CEO/CFO:“Guidance: 'Acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single digit Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share accretion in 2027.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Guidance: 'Acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single digit Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share accretion in 2027.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
64 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VST Vistra Corp. | -5.9 | full | elevated |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Vistra Corp. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing, among other matters, its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such news release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information set forth in this
earnings preannouncement—score 63 - 2026-04-2811d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 22, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC (“Vistra Operations” or the “Issuer”), an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Vistra Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “Vistra”), completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of $4.0 billion aggregate principal amount of the Issuer’s senior notes, consisting of $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Issuer’s 4.550% senior notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes…
capital allocationpositivescore 51 - 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
capital allocationnegativescore 40
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.