XOM
ExxonMobilNYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, XOM has a composite score of 5.8, indicating a mixed signal with medium confidence at 74.4. The score is influenced by a favorable outlook if inflation and sector trends improve, but it faces unfavorable scenarios related to labor and growth reversals. The macro score is 4.0, while the sector score is lower at 2.6, reflecting moderate risk and an expensive valuation at 7.3. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.06
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.67 → $3.67 (+37.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 10 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve $20B Structural Cost Savings by 2030costmixed65% progress
5/1: “The company has delivered $15.6 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ExxonMobil has achieved $15.6 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019, with an additional $0.6 billion achieved during the first quarter of 2026. The company is on track to reach its $20 billion target by 2030, indicating delivering progress.
- 2.Repurchase $20B of shares in 2026capital allocationon track77% progress
5/1: “On pace with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ExxonMobil has reiterated its plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026. The company distributed $9.2 billion to shareholders in Q1 2026, including $4.9 billion of share repurchases, indicating progress towards the target.
- 3.Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5%productmixed65% progress
5/1: “Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. ExxonMobil achieved first LNG production at Golden Pass Train 1, marking a significant milestone by increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%. This achievement aligns with the company's strategic focus on expanding its LNG capabilities.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 61/100, drawdown 69/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve $20B Structural Cost Savings by 2030
CostExxonMobil aims to achieve $20 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings by 2030.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ExxonMobil has achieved $15.6 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019, with an additional $0.6 billion achieved during the first quarter of 2026. The company is on track to reach its $20 billion target by 2030, indicating delivering progress.
65%CEO/CFO:“The company has delivered $15.6 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-01Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company has delivered $15.6 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Achieved $15.1 billion in cumulative Structural Cost Savings since 2019.”
- #2
Repurchase $20B of shares in 2026
Capital allocationExxonMobil plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ExxonMobil has reiterated its plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026. The company distributed $9.2 billion to shareholders in Q1 2026, including $4.9 billion of share repurchases, indicating progress towards the target.
77%CEO/CFO:“On pace with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-01Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“On pace with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“ExxonMobil plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares through 2026.”
- #3
Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5%
ProductExxonMobil achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. ExxonMobil achieved first LNG production at Golden Pass Train 1, marking a significant milestone by increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%. This achievement aligns with the company's strategic focus on expanding its LNG capabilities.
65%CEO/CFO:“Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-01Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
41 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | -13 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.1 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-2.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-017d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 61 - 2026-05-044d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 28, 2026, Len M. Fox, Vice President, Controller and Tax (principal accounting officer) of the Corporation, announced his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026. (c) On April 28, 2026, the Corporation elected Susan Buchanan as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) of the Corporation effective Ju…
executive changeneutralscore 51 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 18, 2026, Mr. Jeffrey W. Ubben announced his intention not to stand for re-election to the board at the annual meeting of shareholders on May 27, 2026, for reasons unrelated to the company. Mr. Ubben will remain on the board and continue to serve until the annual meeting. “We thank Jeff for his service on the ExxonMobil Board of Dir…
executive changeneutralscore 10 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On December 8, 2025, Kathryn A. Mikells announced her intention to retire from her position as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer) of the Corporation effective February 1, 2026. In recent months, Ms. Mikells has undergone a series of procedures and surgeries to address a debilitating but non-life-thre…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.