Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Zenas Biopharma, Inc. (ZBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$25.93-8.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZBIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash funds operations through Q2 2029 | The company has enough cash to operate through Q2 2029. | Intact | Cash runs out before Q2 2029 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth investment in a loss-making biotech, with the thesis centered on obexelimab’s regulatory path. The long-term thesis is at a watch stage: management has advanced key milestones, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
ZBIO trades at a 16.57% premium to peers, with low confidence in the valuation model and optionality as the main reason for the gap. The evidence points to some premium for future possibilities, but does not show that the market assumes a specific commercial outcome.
Near term, results may remain uneven: ZBIO reported an earnings miss in August after a beat in May, and the next print carries a 52% miss probability in the snapshot. Over the multi-year view, regulatory progress is tangible: the FDA accepted the obexelimab application with a May 27, 2027 action date, while an EMA submission is expected in the second half of 2026; cash and investments were $673.9 million in Q2 2026, and management expects funding through Q2 2029.
The thesis hinges on the obexelimab regulatory process staying on schedule and management maintaining its stated funding runway. A guidance cut or further weakness in jobs data would add pressure, while strong results and guidance from sector leaders could support healthcare-sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ZBIO remains a high-risk, loss-making biotech with meaningful regulatory progress, but a premium valuation and weaker relative performance leave execution as the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Positive trial results support future approval chances. |
| Intact |
| Negative or inconclusive trial results |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Submit Biologics License Application (BLA) to FDA in Q2 2026 | Zenas BioPharma plans to submit a key drug application in Q2 2026. | Intact | BLA submission delayed beyond Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.73 → $-5.06 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.73 | $63,257,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.73 | $63,257,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.73 | $63,257,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.73 | $63,257,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.27 | $63,749,500 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.77 | $63,757,904 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.95 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.05 | $53,968,466 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-5.06 | $57,924,424 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.