Zenas Biopharma, Inc. (ZBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.88-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZBIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 459.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ZBIO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Zenas Biopharma operates in a maturing sector. Growth trends affect its prospects.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is above 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is below current levels.
Why it matters: Submitting the MAA is crucial for gaining approval in Europe. This step is vital for commercialization.
Supportive ifThe MAA for obexelimab is submitted to the EMA in H2 2026.
Worry ifThe MAA submission is delayed past 2026 or not submitted at all.
Why it matters: Funding operations is critical for Zenas to continue its development efforts. Any shortfall could impact growth plans.
Worry ifThe company gets more funding to help operations until Q2 2029.
Less concerning ifThe company reports funding problems or delays in getting money.
Why it matters: Early data will show if ZB021 is safe and effective for autoimmune diseases.
Supportive ifInitial data for ZB021 will be reported by the end of 2026.
Worry ifData is not reported by the end of 2026 or shows safety issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$301 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $816 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,479 loss on $10,000 · 64.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Submitting the BLA is a key step for obexelimab. It could lead to approval and sales.
Supportive ifThe company submits the Biologics License Application to the FDA by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe company delays the BLA submission beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA will decide on obexelimab. This will impact Zenas's future earnings and market position.
Supportive ifFDA provides a decision on obexelimab by the PDUFA date of May 27, 2027.
Worry ifFDA delays the decision beyond the PDUFA date.
Why it matters: Submitting the MAA is important for Zenas to expand its market reach in Europe. This could lead to new revenue streams.
Supportive ifThe company submits the MAA to the EMA in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe company does not submit the MAA to the EMA in H2 2026.
Why it matters: Top results will show how well obexelimab works for lupus. This data is important for future plans.
Supportive ifTopline results from the Phase 2 SunStone trial are reported in Q4 2026.
Worry ifResults are delayed past Q4 2026 or are not clear.