Reading AA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AA free→
AA
AlcoaNYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$68.77-0.30%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If AA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $18.20B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2016-10-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-15
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$60.97consensus
Range $52.48 – $82.24
vs price: +13% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$163.12consensus
Range $69.54 – $271.47
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $69 AA trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $61 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $68–$80. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
22.7x
peer 20.1x · own history 15.0x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
13%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$60.97
range $51.16 – $83.38
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
97th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
15th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +5.8% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.22 → $2.34 (+5.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.6% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$536.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,177.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum rose by 18.8 points (from -17.1 to 1.7).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Company momentum rose. Confidence changed to high.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for changes in the upcoming earnings report on July 15
Why it matters: The earnings report will show Alcoa's financial health and market position.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows improved metrics across revenue and cash flow.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals further declines in revenue and cash flow.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-112d agoZero Hedge
Threatens: Focus on cash flow improvement
CFO's warning indicates significant cash flow risks.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CENX and KALU keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting AA and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CENX and KALU start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping AA and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AA and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 4, 2026, Alcoa Corporation (the “Company”), Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Borrower”), and certain subsidiaries of the Company, entered into Amendment No. 3 (“Amendment No. 3”) to the Revolving Credit Agreement, dated as of September 16, 2016, as amended as of October 26, 2016, as amended and restated as of November 14, 2017, as amended and restated as of November 21, 2018, as amended as of August…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.