American Airlines Group (AAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.13+1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 AAL trades at 0.1× p/s, below its 1.6× p/s peer median. Our $26 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead) and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $13–$25. Note: our $26 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($13–$25). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 10% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $19.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $39.67 | 15.4 | 5.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $9.50 | 22.1 | 0.43 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $32.10 | 20.0 | 1.61 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$13.00 – $25.00 (median $19.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-24
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 3Y |
| $1.69 |
| 22.1 |
| 0.08 |
| Hist. CAGR(prov.) |
| medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $56.42 | 20.0 | 2.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $68.11 | 20.0 | 3.41 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |