Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American Airlines Group (AAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.93-5.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.73 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve customer experience and operational reliability | Customer experience is improving with new tech and lounges. | Intact | Operational issues and customer complaints increase significantly | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical airline business with a fragile earnings profile, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is weakened, though recent momentum improved and the signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes AAL as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 9% premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not clearly show that the market is pricing in unusually low expectations.
Near-term revenue growth is strong: third-quarter revenue rose 19.3% year over year, and premium revenue rose 22.9%, but AAL still reported a $269 million quarterly net loss. Management’s customer-experience work has some evidence of progress, while cost performance remains mixed: CASM-ex, a measure of costs per unit of capacity excluding certain items, rose 3.0% year over year despite planned savings. Near-term risk is elevated, with guidance and industry results important to watch.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth translating into sustained earnings improvement and on announced cost savings overcoming current unit-cost pressure. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the industry backdrop, while peer misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, AAL’s revenue progress and improved momentum are offset by ongoing losses, volatile management signals, and elevated industry and cost risks. The thesis remains weakened until improved revenue and planned savings show up in stronger financial performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Debt fell to $34.7 billion. |
| Under Pressure |
| Total debt remains above $35 billion at end 2026 |
Total debt: $36.274B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <35B USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202636,274,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow above $2 billion in 2026 | Free cash flow should exceed $2 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow falls below $2 billion in 2026 | Free cash flow: $-1.248B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2B USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 2026-1,248,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth of at least 10% in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in American Airlines Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.8% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in 2026-Q1 | Revenue growth: 19.31% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10.8% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202619.311957 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.56 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$64.76B → $68.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.56 | $64,759,953,370 | 24 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.55 | $65,237,319,300 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.55 | $65,237,319,300 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.61 | $65,612,950,391 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.54 | $65,367,580,640 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.51 | $65,436,699,010 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.51 | $65,436,699,010 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.51 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.51 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.51 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.51 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.51 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.48 | $65,574,270,439 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.56 | $65,901,745,880 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.52 | $65,968,680,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.52 | $65,968,680,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.52 | $65,968,680,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.52 | $65,968,680,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.42 | $66,090,580,554 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.42 | $66,090,580,554 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.42 | $66,090,580,554 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.42 | $66,090,580,554 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.39 | $66,061,780,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.39 | $66,061,780,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.39 | $66,061,780,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.39 | $66,061,780,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.39 | $66,061,780,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.37 | $66,075,650,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.34 | $66,107,900,555 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.33 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.32 | $66,177,058,009 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.24 | $66,272,657,118 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.24 | $66,272,657,118 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.24 | $66,272,657,118 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.24 | $66,272,657,118 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.24 | $66,272,657,118 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.19 | $66,264,384,441 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.10 | $66,314,793,964 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.10 | $66,314,793,964 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.10 | $66,314,793,964 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.91 | $66,478,158,463 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.91 | $66,478,158,463 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.91 | $66,478,158,463 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.87 | $66,579,778,101 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.73 | $66,696,770,101 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.73 | $66,696,770,101 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.73 | $66,696,770,101 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.67 | $66,847,870,448 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.61 | $66,983,942,337 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.40 | $67,114,264,662 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.27 | $67,157,877,032 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.27 | $67,157,877,032 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.20 | $67,157,854,932 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.20 | $67,157,854,932 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.20 | $67,157,854,932 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.20 | $67,157,854,932 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.20 | $67,157,854,932 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.20 | $67,157,868,395 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.20 | $67,157,868,395 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.18 | $67,170,512,109 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.18 | $67,170,512,109 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.18 | $67,170,512,109 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.13 | $67,356,844,765 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.13 | $67,356,844,765 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.23 | $67,538,846,000 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.07 | $67,938,459,640 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.07 | $67,938,459,640 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.07 | $67,938,459,640 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.07 | $67,938,459,640 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.00 | $67,966,197,471 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $68,068,561,107 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.93 | $68,097,152,015 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.97 | $68,141,924,742 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.97 | $68,141,924,742 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.97 | $68,141,924,742 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.97 | $68,250,551,141 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $68,250,551,141 | 13 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.