American Airlines Group (AAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.13+1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
AAL — officer change
Dated 2026-07-15
Director — John W. Dietrich: John W. Dietrich was elected to the Board of Directors and will serve on the Audit Committee and Finance Committee.
Why it matters: Keeping debt low is important for financial health. It also allows for more options.
Supportive ifTotal debt reported below $34.7 billion.
Worry ifTotal debt reported above $34.7 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the airline's plans and how they are carried out.
Watch forNew leaders put in place plans that match what is important now.
Also watch forLeadership changes can cause delays or problems with plans and projects.
Why it matters: Growth in premium revenue helps American increase sales that make more money.
Supportive ifPremium unit revenue growth reported higher than Main Cabin for the quarter.
Worry ifPremium unit revenue growth does not exceed Main Cabin growth.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company controls costs as fuel prices rise.
Watch forAdjusted EPS reported in Q2 within the range of ($0.20) to $0.20.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS reported outside the range of ($0.20) to $0.20.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $479 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,739 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifOperating income is getting better. The current progress score is 29.4%.
Worry ifOperating income metrics are still below the current 29.4% progress score.
Why it matters: An upward change shows better profit outlooks with rising costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted earnings per share guidance changed from ($0.65) to $0.65.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share guidance stays the same or gets worse.
Why it matters: A better NPS means happier customers. Happy customers can lead to more loyalty and revenue.
Supportive ifNPS improvement reported beyond the current 5-point increase year over year.
Worry ifNPS improvement reported as flat or declining year over year.
Why it matters: This change may affect the company's plans and actions. It could change their focus on growth.
Watch forA clear transition plan is shared, keeping the strategy on track.
Also watch forThere is no clear plan for the transition. This creates uncertainty in the strategy.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if demand stays strong and supports the revenue momentum seen in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth reported between 16% and 19% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth reported below 16% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs can hurt profits. This may offset revenue gains.
Worry ifQ3 fuel expense increase reported worse than $1.7 billion year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 fuel expense increase reported at or below $1.7 billion year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in corporate revenue shows strong demand from business travelers. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifManaged corporate revenue grew over 26% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifManaged corporate revenue grew below 26% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in fuel prices can greatly affect profits. This can impact investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings guidance reported above $0.65 per diluted share for the full year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings guidance reported below ($0.65) per diluted share for the full year.