American Airlines Group (AAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.93-5.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-22
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On October 22, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. (the Company) issued a news release reporting financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: American set revenue records in Q2 and Q3. Meeting this Q4 range would extend that growth despite high fuel costs.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue grows 19.5% to 22.5% year over year, as guided.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue growth falls below 19.5% year over year.
Why it matters: American has pledged to cut debt and reach 3.0x leverage. A lower reported ratio would show progress on its balance sheet.
Supportive ifAmerican reports net debt to EBITDAR at or below 3.0x.
Worry ifAmerican reports net debt to EBITDAR above 3.0x, or reports no progress toward that goal.
Why it matters: American tied slower growth to high fuel prices. The next capacity plan will show how much the fuel burden changes its network plans.
Worry ifAmerican's 2027 available seat mile growth is lower than its 2026 growth rate.
Less concerning ifAmerican guides to 2027 available seat mile growth at or above its 2026 rate.
Why it matters: Fuel costs rose sharply and weighed on Q3 results. A smaller Q4 loss would show revenue and cost efforts are helping offset that pressure.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted loss per share is worse than the guided range of $0.50 to $1.10 per share.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted loss per share is within or better than the guided range of $0.50 to $1.10 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,739 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.