Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.79+0.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.46 → 6.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AAMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income attributable to controlling interests | Net income rose 21% to $24.3 million, showing profit gains. | Improving | net income falls below $20 million next year | Net income: $27.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $24 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202627,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AAMI is a growth-oriented financial business, with client flows and assets under management supporting revenue growth. The long-term thesis is mixed: management has delivered on flows and margins, but recent execution weakened and the company’s earnings quality is fragile.
AAMI trades at a 1.48 premium to peers, and the valuation is assessed as expensive. The expectations gap is modestly positive at 0.12, but the evidence also flags stretched pricing and weak execution quality, so the durable-growth premium leaves limited room for further execution slippage.
Over the multi-year view, continued positive client flows and asset growth could support revenue, while operating margin progress shows some benefit from expense discipline despite higher spending. Near term, the October earnings miss and sharp drop in company momentum raise execution risk; earnings surprises have also been erratic, and the next guidance update is an important watchpoint.
The thesis depends on AAMI sustaining positive net flows, converting product and distribution efforts into measurable growth, and maintaining margin progress. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum; the rate backdrop is another risk because the evidence says the sector tends to do better when rates remain high.
For the 1-3 year view, AAMI has evidence of organic growth and improving margins, but its expensive valuation and recent execution weakness make the thesis fragile and worth watching. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income increased 31% to $41.9 million, reflecting good cost control. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $35 million next year |
Operating income: $32.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $40 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202632,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Management fees and total revenue growth | Acadian Asset Management grows revenue strongly, with fees up 41% from last year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~20% next year | Revenue growth: 45.29% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202645.290424 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.32 → $6.18 · observed estimates
$0.91B → $0.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.32 | $909,156,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.32 | $909,156,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.32 | $909,156,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.32 | $909,156,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.32 | $909,156,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.32 | $910,317,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.32 | $910,317,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.32 | $910,317,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.32 | $910,317,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.46 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.51 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.51 | $910,767,840 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.45 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.53 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.46 | $910,767,846 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.46 | $912,654,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.32 | $911,904,223 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.32 | $900,775,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.32 | $900,775,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.18 | $894,875,653 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.