AMERICAN BITCOIN CORP (ABTC)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.31-14.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 296 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 46.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 102.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ABTC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-03
President and Interim Chief Financial Officer — Matthew Prusak: Matthew Prusak resigned to pursue a position in his hometown of Austin, Texas.
Why it matters: Q2 set a production record at 932 Bitcoin. More output could grow the reserve and Bitcoin per share.
Supportive ifQ3 results report more than 932 Bitcoin mined and Bitcoin per share above the Q2 level.
Worry ifQ3 results report 932 or fewer Bitcoin mined, or lower Bitcoin per share.
Why it matters: Management aims to grow Bitcoin per share. Q2 Bitcoin holdings rose about 14%, while shares rose about 3%.
Supportive ifQ3 results show Bitcoin per share above Q2's roughly 10,989 satoshis per share.
Worry ifQ3 results show Bitcoin per share at or below Q2's roughly 10,989 satoshis per share.
Why it matters: Gross margin stayed near 50% in Q2 despite a lower Bitcoin price. A drop would show weaker mining returns.
Worry ifQ3 results report mining gross margin below 50%.
Less concerning ifQ3 results report mining gross margin at or above 50%.
Why it matters: The 1-for-15 split aimed to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid price rule. The split alone does not show lasting compliance.
Watch forNasdaq confirms ABTC is still listed. The company reports no new bid-price notice.
Also watch forNasdaq sends ABTC another notice about its minimum bid price or starts delisting ABTC.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$544 on $10,000 · ±5.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $932 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,318 loss on $10,000 · 93.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 cost was about $36,500 per Bitcoin, near Q1's level. A rise would weaken the cost-control record.
Worry ifQ3 results show cost to mine above $36,500 per Bitcoin.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show cost to mine at or below $36,500 per Bitcoin.