Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.02+0.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACAD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 ACAD trades at 47× p/e — 2.9× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $14–$49. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $36.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $14.26 | 14.1 | 1.01 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $8.70 | 10.9 | 0.80 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $19.14 | 2.9 | 6.59 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$14.50 – $49.00 (median $36.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-08-25
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 293% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 11.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.46/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $9.03 |
| 15.1 |
| 0.60 |
| TTM |
| high |
| triangulated | 12M | $10.03 | 16.1 | 0.62 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $10.49 | 10.9 | 0.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $28.36 | 2.9 | 9.76 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $13.74 | 15.1 | 0.91 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $12.64 | 10.9 | 1.16 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $34.18 | 2.9 | 11.76 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $18.17 | 15.1 | 1.20 | Analyst | medium |