Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.02+0.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACAD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACAD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
have been furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing regardless of any general incorporation language.
Why it matters: The new guidance shows that they expect to grow revenue. It also shows stable operations.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms full year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.24 to $1.30 billion.
Worry ifManagement has cut the yearly revenue guidance to less than $1.24 billion.
Why it matters: Continued growth in NUPLAZID sales is key for Acadia's revenue and market strength.
Supportive ifNUPLAZID net sales grew over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifNUPLAZID net sales grew less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would signal strong market acceptance and growth potential for DAYBUE.
Supportive ifDAYBUE net sales reported above $510 million for the year.
Worry ifDAYBUE net sales reported below $480 million for the year.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is confirmed, it shows management's confidence. This is important despite recent revenue drops.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year revenue guidance of $1.22 to $1.28 billion during Q2 earnings.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance from the current range.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $356 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,758 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company meets its revenue guidance and how DAYBUE and NUPLAZID are performing.
Watch forEarnings report shows total revenues within the guided range of $1.22 to $1.28 billion.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows total revenues are much lower than expected. This suggests possible problems.
Why it matters: Higher costs may mean the company is spending too much for its growth. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported above $700 million for the year.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported below $660 million for the year.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth will help overall revenue. It will also support the product launch plan.
Supportive ifDAYBUE STIX net sales increase by more than 20% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifDAYBUE STIX sales decline or fail to grow quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: These results could impact the future of Acadia's pipeline and stock value. Positive results may boost confidence in the company's growth strategy.
Watch forThe Phase 2 study results are positive. This shows promise for more development.
Also watch forThe Phase 2 study results are negative. This points to problems in the Alzheimer's market.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs may mean problems or too much spending. Keeping costs low is key for making money.
Worry ifSG&A costs were below $660 million for 2026. This shows good cost control.
Less concerning ifSG&A costs went over $700 million for 2026. This may mean too much spending.