Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.24-1.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.93 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACAD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive regulatory reviews and approvals | Positive EU drug reviews support future sales. | Under Pressure | Negative regulatory decisions or loss of approvals | Qualitative: Mixed Phase 2 results (SAPS-H+D -12.6 vs -10.4) vs positive regulatory outlook target FDA Fast Track designation for remlifanserin in July 2026, followed by mixed Phase 2 trial results in September 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a product-growth and clinical-development investment, rather than a profitable compounder today, since the evidence describes earnings as loss-making. The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but ACAD carries a 2.18 premium versus peers and the expectations gap is negative. That points to limited room for disappointment if execution weakens; confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near term, DAYBUE sales growth and reaffirmed or increased revenue guidance support the business, while recent results have been strong. Remlifanserin’s September Phase 2 results support continued Phase 3 work, but the evidence calls that priority mixed; lowered guidance noted as of August and erratic earnings add uncertainty.
The thesis gains support if management reverses the guidance cut and DAYBUE growth continues. It faces pressure if weaker employment data raises recession concerns or if healthcare-sector momentum fades; clinical progress and the recent litigation are also factors to monitor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACAD’s thesis rests on sustained product growth and clinical execution, with valuation expectations and uneven guidance leaving meaningful uncertainty. The business evidence is constructive, but the signal has softened. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims for revenue near $1.28 billion in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Annual revenue falls below $1.22 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $307.959M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.22 billion and <= $1.28 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026307,959,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
SG&A expenses capped at $700 million in 2026 | Costs are controlled with SG&A capped at $700 million. | Intact | SG&A expenses exceed $700 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.85 → $0.94 · observed estimates
$1.40B → $1.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.83 | $1,400,552,683 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.85 | $1,400,559,210 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.83 | $1,400,552,683 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.83 | $1,400,552,683 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.89 | $1,430,248,860 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.89 | $1,430,248,860 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.89 | $1,430,248,860 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.89 | $1,430,248,860 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.88 | $1,430,248,860 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.90 | $1,429,920,650 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.92 | $1,428,818,723 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.91 | $1,431,361,805 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.91 | $1,431,361,805 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.91 | $1,431,361,805 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.91 | $1,431,361,805 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.91 | $1,431,361,805 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.91 | $1,432,832,496 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.91 | $1,433,157,072 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.92 | $1,433,239,023 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.92 | $1,433,245,928 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.92 | $1,433,245,928 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.93 | $1,432,830,296 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.93 | $1,432,624,496 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.93 | $1,432,640,286 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.93 | $1,432,640,286 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.93 | $1,433,009,544 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.93 | $1,433,009,544 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.93 | $1,433,292,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.93 | $1,433,292,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.93 | $1,433,292,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.94 | $1,433,375,281 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.94 | $1,433,375,281 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.94 | $1,433,375,281 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.94 | $1,433,375,281 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.94 | $1,433,375,281 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.94 | $1,433,480,544 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.