ACCO Brands Corp. (ACCO)
NYSEIndustrialsBusiness Equipment & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.26-4.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsBusiness Equipment & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACCO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-03-09
is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: The $0.98 to $1.02 outlook includes $0.12 from tariff refunds. Results above or below that range test the raised outlook.
Watch forFull-year adjusted EPS is at least $0.98, within or above the $0.98 to $1.02 outlook range.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted EPS is below $0.98, the low end of the outlook range.
Why it matters: Q3 sales fell 6.2% on a comparable basis, despite help from EPOS and currency. A rebound would show demand is improving.
Watch forComparable sales rise year over year in a later quarter. Technology peripheral demand is no longer a drag.
Also watch forComparable sales fall more than 6.2% year over year. Or, technology peripheral demand falls further.
Why it matters: ACCO raised its cash flow outlook after reporting $89 million in free cash flow through Q3. The result also affects debt paydown.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow reaches about $100 million, as stated in the Q3 outlook.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow falls below the prior $75 million low-end outlook, or the company cuts its current $100 million outlook.
Why it matters: Leverage was 3.6x at September-end. A lower year-end figure would show debt is still falling after the Trust deal.
Supportive ifACCO reports a total debt ratio near 3.5x at year-end 2026.
Worry ifYear-end leverage is above 3.6x, or ACCO reports that debt rose after the Trust closing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,094 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Trust closed on October 1 and adds tech peripherals. Management cited $5 million to $8 million in savings within 18 months.
Supportive ifACCO reports Trust sales and confirms it is on track for $5 million to $8 million in synergies within 18 months of closing.
Worry ifACCO reports Trust sales below its plan. Or, it says the $5 million to $8 million synergy target is delayed or cut.