Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Accendra Health, Inc. (ACH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.28-2.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.12 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $335M and $355M in FY26 | The company affirms revenue guidance near $2.6B and adjusted EBITDA around $345M. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $335M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACH is a high-risk turnaround and reset story, not a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by recent performance that ranks in the top half of its industry, though management execution is volatile and the evidence is mixed.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious; the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility. Valuation rose 15.8 points recently, but the evidence does not explain what drove that change or specify the market’s exact assumptions.
Near term, results may remain uneven: revenue fell year over year in 2026-Q2 and operating income was negative, while lower SG&A and a reported debt reduction show progress on costs and the balance sheet. The next report carries elevated miss risk after a recent quarterly miss, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Two recent legal or regulatory notices concern continued listing rules, and the supplied evidence does not state their outcome.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on completing the separation, turning expense reductions into sustained operating improvement, and making progress toward profitability. A guidance cut or further weakening in job growth could pressure the business outlook, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, ACH has a credible reset in progress, but lower revenue, ongoing losses, and management and listing uncertainty make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Accendra Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no material cash flow impairment from debt or litigation. |
| Under Pressure |
| material cash flow impairment or credit downgrade from debt/litigation |
NYSE delisting notice (market cap <$50M, price <$1) vs no material impairment NYSE non-compliance notices for market cap and stock price; debt exchange offer; Baird downgrade. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow between $90M and $110M in FY26 | Accendra Health aims to generate free cash flow of $90M to $110M in 2026. | Under Pressure | free cash flow falls below $90M in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-73.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $90M and $110M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-73,592,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $2.55B to $2.65B in FY26 | A primary condition in Accendra Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $2.55B and $2.65B. | Broken | revenue falls below $2.55B in FY26 | Revenue: $613.234M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $2.55B and $2.65B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026613,234,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.76 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$2.70B → $2.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.76 | $2,702,044,166 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.76 | $2,702,044,166 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.69 | $2,676,767,010 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.58 | $2,602,353,210 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.58 | $2,602,353,210 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.77 | $2,693,196,959 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.18 | $2,573,789,737 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.12 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $2,572,553,491 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.