Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.13-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACHC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 ACHC trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $30–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $38.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $27.40 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $35.72 | 23.2 | 1.54 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $39.52 | 1.1 | 36.86 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$30.00 – $40.00 (median $38.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-30
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $28.90 |
| 18.8 |
| 1.54 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.27 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $37.99 | 23.2 | 1.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $88.62 | 23.2 | 3.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $43.85 | 1.1 | 40.90 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $71.70 | 18.8 | 3.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $91.66 | 23.2 | 3.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $45.36 | 1.1 | 42.30 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $74.16 | 18.8 | 3.95 | Analyst | medium |