Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.79+7.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.85 → 1.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA at least $144 million in Q1 2026 | Profit rises with EBITDA near $144 million in Q1. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $134 million in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an operational improvement and capacity-growth thesis in a healthcare business, with a sector tailwind. The thesis state is watch: management has raised 2026 earnings guidance, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
ACHC is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall valuation assessment is neutral and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence suggests weak execution quality is partly reflected in valuation, but does not establish that all business risks are priced in.
Near term, recent results include a July earnings beat, and management has raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS guidance while adding beds. These are signs of progress, but erratic earnings surprises, weaker performance than peers, and September litigation remain risks; the evidence on the litigation's effect is thin.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining higher guidance and continuing to add facility capacity. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could pressure cyclical healthcare names; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view has tangible capacity and guidance progress, but fragile earnings quality, volatile management signals, and weak relative performance leave important execution risks. The evidence supports a watch-state thesis, not a settled account of the business outlook. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company adds new beds to expand capacity. |
| Under Pressure |
| New beds added fall below 82 in Q1 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows about 5% annually | Acadia grows revenue about 5% a year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4.8% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.14% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.8% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265.135907 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete strategic acquisitions to support growth | A supporting condition in Acadia Healthcare's published investment case. The stated target is Complete planned acquisitions in 2026. | Intact | No strategic acquisitions completed in FY26 | 2 acquisitions completed vs 0 trip condition Form 8-K filings dated July 28 and November 4, 2026, report completed acquisitions. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.76 → $1.85 · observed estimates
$3.62B → $3.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.76 | $3,616,296,715 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.76 | $3,616,296,715 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.76 | $3,615,510,890 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.82 | $3,628,284,920 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.82 | $3,628,243,255 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.82 | $3,628,252,422 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.82 | $3,628,249,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.82 | $3,628,249,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.82 | $3,628,249,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.82 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.82 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.82 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.85 | $3,628,098,755 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.85 | $3,628,053,589 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.85 | $3,628,088,355 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.