Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.79+7.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACHC — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-25
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, the United States District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee (the “Court”) issued an order (the “Preliminary Approval Order”) providing for preliminary approval of the proposed settlement of the claims asserted nominally on behalf of Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (the “Company”) against the individual defendants named in the previously disclosed stockholder derivative actions styled Solak v. Jacobs, et al. , Case No. 2021-0163-NAC (Del. Ch.), Dav…
Why it matters: Acadia added 240 beds in Q2 and opened two new joint venture sites. More patients can help these sites grow revenue.
Supportive ifAcute inpatient volumes rise at least 5% year over year, while new sites add licensed beds.
Worry ifAcute inpatient volumes are flat or lower year over year, or bed openings are delayed.
Why it matters: The next report is due November 4. Revenue below the Q2 guide's low end would signal weaker growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $835 million, the low end of Q2 revenue guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $835 million and same-facility patient days grow year over year.
Why it matters: A large reserve charge cut Q2 EBITDA. Another charge near that size could keep pressure on profit.
Worry ifA later quarter records a new PLGL reserve charge of $25 million or more.
Less concerning ifA later quarter records no new PLGL reserve charge and PLGL costs fall from Q2 levels.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$227 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $607 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,352 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.