Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.13-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
ACHC — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-18
Other Events. San Diego Health Alliance, Inc. d/b/a Fashion Valley CTC (“Fashion Valley”), an indirect subsidiary of Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (the “Company”), is a defendant in an employment-related lawsuit filed in the Superior Court of San Diego County, California. Fashion Valley operates a comprehensive treatment center where a former employee who was terminated in October 2023 filed suit alleging retaliatory termination. Fashion Valley vehemently denied the allegations and asserted…
Why it matters: The result could change finances and reputation. It may also affect focus and resources.
Worry ifThe lawsuit ended with a good result for Acadia.
Less concerning ifA choice not to support Acadia or an expensive settlement.
Why it matters: A new CFO could change financial plans and how well the company runs.
Watch forA permanent CFO has been announced.
Also watch forNo announcement of a permanent CFO by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: Growth over 3.2% shows more patient demand and better efficiency.
Supportive ifSame-facility revenue growth is more than 3.2% in Q3.
Worry ifSame-facility revenue growth stays at or below 3.2% in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate signals whether Acadia can sustain its recovery trend in revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 2.8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 2.8% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CEO could impact strategy and execution. This change may affect investor confidence and future performance.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new permanent CEO.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CEO by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The lawsuit may affect Acadia's reputation and finances. A bad outcome could raise costs and lead to more rules.
Worry ifA good resolution or dismissal of the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling or settlement that affects finances.
Why it matters: Consistent cash flow above this level shows strong financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reported above $350 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow reported below $350 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$260 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $631 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,711 loss on $10,000 · 57.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.