Reading ACIW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACIW free→Reading ACIW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACIW free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with ACIW performing above typical compared to its peers. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like MSFT and ORCL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 ACIW trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $62 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.52 (-0.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$365.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,825.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 23.0 points (from 30.0 to 53.0).
Company momentum rose. Valuation changed from inexpensive to fair.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for ACI Worldwide to show it is on track. A lower growth rate would raise concerns about their revenue initiatives.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand ACI Connetic pipeline
Strengthens ACI Connetic pipeline expansion efforts.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition . On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The foregoing information (including the exhibits hereto) is being furnished under “
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACIW ACI Worldwide | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $1.89 billion to $1.92 billion.
The company plans to allocate 50-60% of operating cash flow to share repurchases for the full year.
ACI Worldwide is focused on expanding its ACI Connetic pipeline to meet strong market demand for its cloud-native payments platform.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: A raise in revenue guidance would confirm strong demand and growth momentum.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue guidance raised above $440 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue guidance remains at or below $420 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that ACI Worldwide is controlling costs well. This helps them make more money in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income increases from $57.5M in Q1 to above $60M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or stays below $57.5M in Q2.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in cash flow and spending plans.
Confirms:Share repurchases exceed $65 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Share repurchases fall below $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The ACI Connetic pipeline is growing. This shows a strong need for cloud solutions.
Confirms:ACI Connetic pipeline grows by over 20% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:ACI Connetic pipeline growth is flat or declines in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher cash from operations supports growth plans and indicates better financial health. This is a key metric for investors.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $80M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $78.2M in Q2.
Why it matters: Continued growth in new ARR bookings signals strong market demand for ACI's services.
Confirms:New ARR bookings grow more than 39% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:New ARR bookings growth falls below 20% in Q2 2026.
Advances: Expand ACI Connetic pipeline
New client selection boosts ACI's growth potential.