ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.44+7.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 33.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACMR — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-12
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, ACM Research, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain U.S. institutional investors named therein managed by Tekne Capital Management, LLC (the “Investors”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Investors in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) an aggregate of 2,884,615 shares (the “Shares”) of Class A common stock, p…
Why it matters: The timing of the H Share listing will show ACM's commitment to expanding its global presence. A successful listing could enhance capital strength.
Supportive ifThe company announces a specific date for the H Share listing.
Worry ifThe company delays the H Share listing beyond the expected timeframe.
Why it matters: Continued growth in shipments indicates strong demand for ACM's products.
Supportive ifQ3 shipments increase year over year by more than 36%.
Worry ifQ3 shipments decline year over year or grow less than 30%.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins would show good cost management and better product mix.
Watch forGross margin remains above 46% for two consecutive quarters.
Also watch forGross margin falls below 46% for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Strong growth here shows good product use and more market share.
Supportive ifECP and advanced packaging revenue growth remains above 150% year over year.
Worry ifECP and advanced packaging revenue growth falls below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful shipments would show strong demand in advanced packaging, a key area for ACM.
Supportive ifShipment of the Ultra ECP ap-p tool occurs in the first half of 2027 as scheduled.
Worry ifDelay in shipment of the Ultra ECP ap-p tool beyond the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: New products can drive revenue and market share. Delays or lack of new offerings may signal challenges in innovation.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of at least one new product in Q2.
Worry ifNo new products launched or big delays in product releases in Q2.
Why it matters: The H Share listing may improve access to capital. It can also help global expansion.
Supportive ifManagement gives a clear timeline for the H Share offering and listing.
Worry ifThe H Share listing is delayed or canceled due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can increase revenue. They can also make the company more competitive.
Supportive ifNew products from the Lingang mini-line have been successfully launched.
Worry ifThere are no new product launches or delays in the Lingang mini-line.
Why it matters: The ramp-up is key for expanding production capacity and meeting global demand. Delays could hinder growth plans.
Supportive ifThe Oregon facility is now at full capacity. It has met its key production goals.
Worry ifThere are more delays in the ramp-up of the Oregon facility.
Why it matters: New products can drive revenue growth and market share gains.
Supportive ifLaunch of at least two new advanced packaging products by Q4.
Worry ifNo new advanced packaging products launched by Q4.
Why it matters: New product launches help keep a competitive edge. They also support revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement announces they will launch at least two new products next quarter.
Worry ifNo new product launches are reported or delays are announced.
Why it matters: Successful launches would prove ACM's plan to grow its products and market share.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new product launches in Q3, such as PECVD or advanced packaging tools.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced in Q3 or delays in product evaluations.
Why it matters: New PECVD systems show that ACM is innovating. This helps them compete better.
Supportive ifNew PECVD systems are being shipped to customers for final checks.
Worry ifNo new PECVD systems were announced. Shipments are on time.
Why it matters: Management raised the full-year revenue outlook. Changes could signal demand shifts.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue growth guidance above 30% for Q3.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue growth guidance below 25% for Q3.
Why it matters: The mini-line's performance shows how well ACM is innovating. Success can help them compete better.
Supportive ifManagement reports good results from the mini-line. This leads to new product orders.
Worry ifThere are no new product orders. Customers have given negative feedback about the mini-line.
Why it matters: Strong orders help revenue growth. A slowdown may show weak demand or competition.
Supportive ifOrder intake growth is up 65% or more compared to last year.
Worry ifOrder intake growth is below 65% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Approval would let ACM get money from international markets. This could make its finances stronger.
Supportive ifShareholders will vote on the H Share listing at the next general meeting.
Worry ifShareholders will not approve the H Share listing at the general meeting.
Why it matters: New products are key for growth. Delays or fewer launches could hurt revenue expectations.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new product launches in H2 2026.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced in H2 2026.
Why it matters: Getting customers to accept the product is important for making money. Delays could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifAt least two new tools receive customer acceptance by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNo new tools receive customer acceptance by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The order backlog update shows demand strength. It also gives revenue visibility for future quarters.
Supportive ifManagement says the order backlog is up by at least 65% from last year.
Worry ifOrder backlog shows a decline or stagnation compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Successful launches could help increase market share and revenue. This would support growth goals.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of successful launches of new products like Tahoe or SPM tools.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced or delays in product rollouts.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong revenue growth signals ACM's ability to expand and meet its targets. A drop below 25% may raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth above 25% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: More evaluations of new products can lead to higher future revenue. Fewer evaluations may indicate slower growth.
Supportive ifNew products will be evaluated on different platforms.
Worry ifNo new product evaluations announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$389 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $821 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,854 loss on $10,000 · 48.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.