Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (ACRS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.61-1.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACRS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows toward -$0.50 per share | A primary condition in Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -0.50 USD per share. | Improving | EPS remains below -$0.50 per share in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development company, not an established earnings compounder: it is loss-making, and its investment case depends on advancing programs such as ATI-052 and ATI-2138. The multi-year thesis is still in a watch state, with mixed delivery against management priorities and elevated risk.
ACRS is valued at a premium to peers, while the model points to an expectations gap driven by optionality, or the possible value of future program progress. Confidence in that valuation signal is low, and the evidence labels the priced-in setup as unjustified because the premium is not matched by strong current fundamentals.
Near term, a recent earnings beat and positive Phase 1b results for ATI-052 provide some progress, but financial performance remains weak and the company is loss-making. Management still expects funding to cover operations through the end of 2028, though reported cash and securities declined between March and June; the ATI-2138 trial start remains planned, not reported as underway.
The multi-year thesis hinges on clinical execution, including the planned Phase 2b work for ATI-052 in EoE and the planned fourth-quarter 2026 start for ATI-2138 in lichen planus. Near term, reaffirmed guidance needs to hold; a cut would be a negative, while weaker job growth or continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could shape the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACRS offers program-development optionality, but the evidence is mixed and the premium valuation sits alongside weak performance and elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Aclaris is advancing its pipeline with a Phase 2 asthma trial for ATI-052. |
| Improving |
| Failure to initiate or significant delay in Phase 2 trial for ATI-052 |
Phase 2 trial planned (qualitative) Aclaris mapped pipeline calendar, explicitly planning Phase 2 asthma trial for ATI-052. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows above -10% annually | A primary condition in Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -10% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below -10% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.77 → $-0.72 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.77 | $5,842,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.83 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.82 | $5,358,400 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.80 | $5,211,600 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.80 | $5,211,600 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.80 | $5,211,600 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.81 | $5,181,600 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.81 | $5,181,600 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.78 | $5,842,667 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.77 | $5,646,222 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.75 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.76 | $5,771,600 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.78 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.76 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.74 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.74 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.72 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.72 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.72 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.72 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.72 | $5,337,818 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.