Agree Realty (ADC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.62-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
ADC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-26
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 26, 2026, the Company posted an updated investor presentation to its website at www.agreerealty.com, which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is hereby incorporated by reference. In the presentation, the Company disclosed that it entered into forward sale agreements in connection with its at-the-market equity program to sell an aggregate of approximately 8.3 million shares of common stock for anticipated net proceeds of over $623 million. In…
Why it matters: Hitting this target would prove that management's growth plan is working. It shows a strong market position.
Supportive ifTotal investment volume reported at $1.6 billion or more for 2026.
Worry ifTotal investment volume was below $1.6 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: This would confirm the strong investment momentum and support the raised full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 investment volume reported at $500 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 investment volume was less than $400 million.
Why it matters: Steady dividend growth shows financial strength. It shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifMonthly dividends increase by at least 4.3% each year.
Worry ifMonthly dividend growth is below 3% each year.
Why it matters: Watching lease expirations helps find risks to income. Many expirations could hurt income stability.
Worry ifLease expirations in 2026 exceed 1% of annualized base rents.
Less concerning ifLease expirations in 2026 are under 1% of yearly base rents.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $166 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,177 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifMonthly dividend was set above $0.267.
Worry ifMonthly dividend stays at $0.267 or goes lower.
Why it matters: This would confirm management's guidance and show continued earnings growth.
Supportive ifQ3 AFFO per share reported between $4.57 and $4.59.
Worry ifQ3 AFFO per share reported below $4.54.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company cares about returns. It also shows they are growing.
Supportive ifAugust 2026 dividend declared at $0.267 per share.
Worry ifAugust 2026 dividend set below $0.267 per share.
Why it matters: If this guidance is confirmed, it shows strong performance. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifAFFO per share reported within the range of $4.57 to $4.59.
Worry ifAFFO per share reported below $4.54.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy may show less demand for retail properties. This affects revenue stability.
Worry ifThe portfolio occupancy was less than 99.5%.
Less concerning ifThe portfolio occupancy was at least 99.7%.
Why it matters: More ground lease acquisitions show a change in strategy. This could help revenue stability and growth.
Supportive ifGround lease acquisitions exceed $50 million in 2026.
Worry ifGround lease acquisitions total less than $30 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Steady dividend growth builds investor trust. It shows strong cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the monthly dividend for August 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in the monthly dividend for August 2026.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. They also show management's faith in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend above the current $0.267 per share.
Worry ifDividends remain flat or decrease.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that management's focus on increasing revenue is working. It shows demand for retail properties is strong.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is 5% or less year over year.
Why it matters: A high number of investment grade tenants helps keep revenue stable and growing.
Supportive ifThe share of annualized base rents from investment grade tenants was above 65%.
Worry ifThe share of annualized base rents from investment grade tenants was below 65%.
Why it matters: Finishing development projects shows the company is growing. This can increase rental income.
Supportive ifAt least 5 development projects are completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 3 development projects are completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows good performance and helps the overall growth story.
Supportive ifQ3 net income per share growth reported above 2.2%.
Worry ifQ3 net income per share growth reported below 1.5%.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show problems in making money. This could change future earnings expectations.
Worry ifNet income growth in Q2 2026 reported above 19% YoY.
Less concerning ifNet income growth in Q2 2026 reported below 15% YoY.