Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Adeia, Inc. (ADEA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.82-12.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.60 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADEA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Term loan balance reduces below $400M | A supporting condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Term loan balance <= $398.6M. | Intact | Term loan balance rises above $426M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADEA is a growth and intellectual-property business with a recurring-revenue expansion story, rather than a low-risk compounder. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent momentum and management progress, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes ADEA as cheap versus peers, with expectations only modestly above the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and no fragility gates were triggered, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry, and the August earnings event was positive. Non-Pay-TV recurring revenue grew, management raised its long-term revenue outlook, and capital allocation priorities remain on track; a CEO transition and a history of industry misses remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on semiconductor business confidence supporting growth and on continued progress in diversifying revenue. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
ADEA’s 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with growth and diversification progress balanced by elevated risk, medium confidence, and leadership change. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Effective enforcement of patent portfolio through litigation. |
| Intact |
| Loss of key patent cases or failure to secure licensing agreements |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves and EBITDA margin holds near 60% | Profit improved with operating income up $12M to $34.8M and EBITDA margin steady at 60%. | Broken | Operating income falls below $22M or EBITDA margin below 50% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $415M in FY26 with diversified customers | A primary condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$415M total revenue. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $395M in FY26 | Revenue: $80.193M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$415M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202680,193,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.55 → $1.51 · observed estimates
$0.45B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.55 | $447,498,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.54 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.61 | $450,814,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.60 | $451,064,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.51 | $426,639,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.