Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Adagio Medical Holdings Inc (ADGM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.06-29.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADGM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves toward break-even | Cash from operations improved by $3.1M. | Broken | Cash from operations worsens beyond negative $6 million | Cash from operations: $-5.26M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= negative $4.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-5,260,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established compounder: ADGM is loss-making, risk is high, and management execution is described as volatile. The multi-year view remains in a watch state, with clinical and regulatory progress offset by weak financial footing and low confidence in the evidence.
The evidence describes ADGM as expensive versus peers, with a durable premium, but model confidence is low. The snapshot does not say what specific growth or approval assumptions the market already expects, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near-term results may remain pressured: recent performance is neutral, below the industry cohort, and the next report carries elevated miss risk. Management has completed the vCLAS PMA application and reported positive six-month trial results, but quarterly cash from operations and net income remain negative, with limited progress toward profitability.
The multi-year thesis depends on FDA action on the vCLAS system, expected in Q4 2026, and on clinical results translating into durable business progress. Near term, a guidance cut or further economic weakening would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
ADGM has meaningful clinical and regulatory milestones underway, but persistent losses, limited cash, recent negative events, and low evidence confidence leave the long-term thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Adagio Medical Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Regain compliance with Nasdaq minimum bid price rule. |
| Under Pressure |
| Failure to regain Nasdaq compliance within 2 quarters |
Stock $0.06 vs $1.00 target Nasdaq notice for bid price non-compliance; stock price $0.06, down 91% from high. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net loss and EPS improve steadily | A primary condition in Adagio Medical Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Net loss <= $7 million and EPS >= -$0.31. | Improving | Net loss rises above $8 million or EPS falls below -$0.5 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating loss improves toward financial stability | Operating loss fell from $7.4M to $5.2M. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond negative $7 million | Operating income: $-4.934M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss <= negative $5.2 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-4,934,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.35 → $-1.16 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.35 | $1,880,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.77 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.77 | $1,880,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.86 | $1,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.16 | $1,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.