Reading ADMA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADMA free→Reading ADMA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADMA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance changes from ADMA and the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX, as these could significantly influence ADMA's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.21 ADMA trades at 12× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $18–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.18 (-28.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 158.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$509.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,481.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 10%, it signals a slowdown in the company's performance. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADMA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$18.00 – $24.00 (median $21.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing total revenue through strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance profitability through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Improve operational cash flow through strategic and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is managing its finances well. This can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: More profit would help ADMA focus on raising net income.
Confirms:Net income rises above $45.3M in Q2.
Disproves:Net income falls below $45.3M.
Why it matters: Better profits mean the company is working smarter. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Profit margins improve by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Profit margins decline or remain the same compared to the previous quarter.