American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.39+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
AEO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Chief Financial Officer — Michael Mathias: Michael Mathias is transitioning to a non-officer role as Strategic Advisor.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to assessing if AEO can maintain its operating income guidance.
Worry ifComparable sales growth for Q2 is reported below +5%.
Less concerning ifComparable sales growth for Q2 is reported at +5% or higher.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good spending habits. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending was between $250 million and $260 million.
Worry ifCapital spending was below $250 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show AEO is on track to achieve its annual income goal. It reflects management's focus on operational excellence.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income was between $45 million and $50 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating income was less than $45 million.
Why it matters: Lower capital spending may mean less growth investment. This can affect future results.
Worry ifSpending for 2026 is less than $250 million.
Less concerning ifCapital expenditures for 2026 are at $250 million or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $488 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,668 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Aerie shows brand strength and consumer demand. This helps overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifAerie comparable sales growth reported above 20% for Q2.
Worry ifAerie comparable sales growth was below 20%.
Why it matters: Growth in the women's business is important for AEO's success. It shows good product execution.
Supportive ifAmerican Eagle women's sales grew in Q2.
Worry ifAmerican Eagle women's sales fell in Q2.