American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.37-4.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
AEO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Chief Financial Officer — Michael Mathias: Michael Mathias is transitioning to a non-officer role as Strategic Advisor.
Why it matters: AEO set a $250–$260 million capital spending range. Spending above it would break the stated plan.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 spending on capital projects tops $260 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 spending on capital projects is $260 million or less.
Why it matters: Inventory cost rose 14%, while revenue rose 8% in Q2. A wider gap could point to stock building faster than demand.
Worry ifAt the next results, inventory cost growth again exceeds revenue growth by at least 5 percentage points.
Less concerning ifInventory cost growth is at or below revenue growth in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: American Eagle sales were still down in Q2, even after improving from Q1. Positive growth would show a clearer recovery.
Supportive ifAmerican Eagle sales at the same stores rise at least 1% from the same quarter last year.
Worry ifAmerican Eagle sales at the same stores fall at least 1% from the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: AEO gave this range for Q3. Meeting it would support the sales recovery, while a miss would weaken that read.
Watch forAt the December 1, 2026 earnings release, Q3 comparable sales rise at least 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 comparable sales rise less than 5% year over year or fall.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $462 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,786 loss on $10,000 · 47.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.