AEON BIOPHARMA INC (AEON)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.16-24.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AEON — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-30
Other Events. On September 30, 2026, the Company announced receipt of the official minutes from its BPD Type 2b meeting with the FDA regarding ABP-450’s development pathway as a proposed biosimilar to BOTOX ® (onabotulinumtoxinA). The FDA agreed in principle with the Company’s proposed two-stage design for a comparative pharmacodynamic study using Compound Muscle Action Potential (“CMAP”) measurement in the extensor digitorum brevis muscle, consisting of an initial dose-finding stage followed…
Why it matters: The July offering was expected to fund work into Q1 2027. More cash or lower spending could give the study more time to advance.
Worry ifA filing shows cash and cash equivalents above $13.6 million at year-end 2026, with runway beyond March 31, 2027.
Less concerning ifAEON reports cash below $5 million before March 31, 2027, or says it needs new funding to keep the planned work on track.
Why it matters: Starting on time would show that the FDA path is moving into clinical testing. A delay would add time and cost.
Supportive ifAEON reports that the CMAP pharmacodynamic study has begun by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifAEON reports no study start by March 31, 2027, or says the start was delayed.
Why it matters: Cash exercise could add funds for ABP-450 work. No cash exercise would leave the company without that added funding.
Supportive ifAEON reports cash from milestone warrant exercises. This moves it toward the stated $34 million gross potential.
Worry ifThe milestone warrants expire or are canceled with no cash proceeds reported.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$364 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,002 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,588 loss on $10,000 · 85.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.