American Financial Group (AFG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$142.72-1.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AFG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results Of Operations And Financial Condition. Reference is made to the press release of American Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) relating to the announcement of the Company’s results of operations for the first quarter of 2026 and the availability of the Investor Supplement on the Company’s website. The press release was issued on April 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the Investor Supplement is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 and are incorpora…
Why it matters: Achieving this target supports the goal of $11 EPS for 2026. It shows strong ongoing performance.
Supportive ifQ2 core net operating earnings per share of $2.75 or more reported.
Worry ifQ2 core net operating earnings per share below $2.50.
Why it matters: A drop could mean weaker market conditions. It might also show operational problems.
Worry ifUnderwriting profit falls below $300 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifUnderwriting profit stays above $350 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: This sale is expected to bring a $125 million pretax gain. It will impact capital allocation.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the sale closing in Q2 or Q3 2026.
Worry ifDelay in closing the sale beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The company pays dividends and buys back shares. This shows it is financially strong.
Supportive ifAFG plans to continue share repurchases or raise dividends next quarter.
Worry ifAFG cuts dividends or halts share repurchases in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $171 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,318 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady growth in underwriting profit shows strong performance in the P&C sector.
Supportive ifUnderwriting profit was over $300 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifUnderwriting profit falls below $250 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A combined ratio over 90% shows lower profits from underwriting. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifQ2 combined ratio was over 90%.
Less concerning ifQ2 combined ratio was under 88%.
Why it matters: Slower growth could signal market challenges or loss of competitive edge.
Worry ifNet written premiums growth reported below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet written premiums growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This rebound is important for AFG's growth plan. It helps with making money over time.
Supportive ifQ2 premium growth reported at 5% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 premium growth below 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This sale could bring a $125 million gain before tax. It will affect capital management.
Supportive ifThe sale is closing. It will recognize the $125 million gain.
Worry ifDelay in the sale or failure to recognize the expected gain.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong profits and growth potential.
Supportive ifCore net operating EPS of $11 or higher reported for 2026.
Worry ifCore net operating EPS falls below $10 for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Strong underwriting profits show good risk management and growth in premiums.
Supportive ifUnderwriting profits will rise by at least 30% year-over-year in the next quarters.
Worry ifUnderwriting profits fall or grow less than 10% year-over-year.