AGCO (AGCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.40+6.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGCO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $133 AGCO trades at 23× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $110 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $99–$160. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $173 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $127.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $31.13 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $39.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $87.15 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$99.00 – $160.00 (median $127.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-08-31
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $103.20 |
| 22.2 |
| 4.64 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $130.98 | 19.3 | 6.77 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $236.31 | 1.6 | 145.35 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $200.81 | 34.1 | 5.89 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $59.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $113.34 | 19.2 | 5.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $149.07 | 24.0 | 6.22 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $61.60 | 22.2 | 2.77 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $146.17 | 19.3 | 7.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $253.65 | 1.6 | 156.02 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $257.66 | 34.1 | 7.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $145.43 | 19.2 | 7.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $43.68 | 22.2 | 1.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $151.90 | 19.3 | 7.85 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $263.60 | 1.6 | 162.13 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $267.76 | 34.1 | 7.85 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $151.13 | 19.2 | 7.85 | Analyst | high |