AGCO (AGCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.40+6.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGCO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, AGCO Corporation (“AGCO” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In the press release, AGCO uses non-GAAP financial measures. For purposes of SEC Regulation G, a “non-GAAP financial measure” is a numerical measure of a registrant’s historical or future performance, financial position or cas…
Why it matters: Improved margins would mean AGCO is working hard to control costs and be efficient.
Supportive ifGross profit margin in Q2 improves to above 8%.
Worry ifGross profit margin in Q2 falls below 7.5%.
Why it matters: A $350 million share buyback shows that management believes in AGCO's value. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifShare buybacks started in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of share repurchases by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping margins steady shows AGCO can manage costs and prices well. This shows good operations.
Supportive ifOperating margins are over 7.5% for Q3.
Worry ifOperating margins are under 7.0% for Q3.
Why it matters: Sales trends will show if AGCO can keep its market share during tough times.
Watch forNorth American sales grow by more than 5% year over year.
Also watch forNorth American sales decline by more than 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,992 loss on $10,000 · 29.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Farmer feelings impact equipment buying. High costs can slow down investments.
Worry ifFarmer sentiment surveys show more caution because of rising costs.
Less concerning ifFarmer surveys show more confidence in buying equipment.
Why it matters: Tractor sales trends will indicate demand strength in the agricultural sector. A decline can signal broader market issues.
Worry ifNorth American tractor sales fell more than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifNorth American tractor sales stay the same or grow compared to last year.
Why it matters: Margins show how well AGCO controls costs in a tough market. Good margins help profits.
Watch forAdjusted operating margins are over 8.0% in Q2 2026. This shows strong cost control.
Also watch forAdjusted operating margins drop below 7.5% in Q2 2026. This suggests rising cost problems.
Why it matters: Tractor sales show demand in farming. Strong sales mean the market is getting better.
Watch forTractor sales in North America grew by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNorth America tractor sales are down more than 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: AGCO will share its earnings per share guidance. This shows how they plan to face market challenges.
Watch forAGCO raises its adjusted earnings per share guidance above $6.00 for 2026.
Also watch forAGCO lowers its adjusted earnings per share guidance below $5.50 for 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in North America shows AGCO's Farmer-First strategy is working. It shows demand is recovering in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ3 North American net sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifNorth American sales growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates signal confidence in cash flow and financial health. It can affect stock price.
Supportive ifManagement says the $350 million share buyback program is done.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show lower demand. This would hurt AGCO's earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net sales down year over year worse than -3.7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the share repurchase program show AGCO wants to return value to shareholders. This shows financial health.
Supportive ifAGCO finishes the $350 million share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program are reported.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows AGCO's financial strength. It shows AGCO can handle market challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share meet or exceed $1.50.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share fall below $1.30.