Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AGCO (AGCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$110.22-2.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.35 → 7.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Initiate $350M share repurchases and increase dividend to $0.30 per share | Share buybacks and dividend increases show steady capital return. | Intact | Share repurchases do not start and dividend stays below $0.30 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business, meaning results can move with demand across the equipment market. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent earnings improved momentum, but earnings quality is fragile and company quality weakened.
AGCO is cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels current pricing as justified rather than showing a large mismatch. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to a strong cushion from expectations being too low.
Near term, sales and operating income were lower year over year in the latest quarter, while the adjusted operating margin outlook was about 7.0%. Precision agriculture remains a stated priority, but financial delivery is limited so far; production and dealer-inventory alignment is more encouraging, though revenue trends remain mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given erratic and weakening earnings surprises. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on better margin execution and financial results from precision agriculture; sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance may also signal whether the industrial backdrop is improving or weakening.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AGCO has peer-cheap valuation and some recent momentum, but fragile earnings quality, margin pressure, and a sector headwind leave the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised EPS guidance to $6.00 per share for 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $5.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.75 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.0 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20260.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin improves to 7.5%-8.0% in FY26 | Profit margins improve with gross margin near 7.5%-8%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 7.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 24.99% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 PERCENT. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202624.990055 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $10.5B in FY26 | A primary condition in AGCO's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.5 USD_BILLIONS. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $9.8B in FY26 | Revenue: $2.263B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10.5 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20262,262,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.97 → $7.05 · observed estimates
$11.10B → $10.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.97 | $11,098,285,930 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.90 | $11,105,358,456 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.98 | $11,098,099,270 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.86 | $10,922,958,180 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.86 | $10,922,958,180 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.62 | $10,800,018,100 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.55 | $10,776,476,930 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.55 | $10,776,476,930 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.52 | $10,742,747,050 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.54 | $10,881,300,000 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.54 | $10,881,300,000 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.54 | $10,881,300,000 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.54 | $10,881,300,000 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.54 | $10,881,300,000 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.54 | $10,794,759,235 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.32 | $10,731,462,244 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.32 | $10,731,464,337 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.34 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.35 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.35 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.35 | $10,689,482,344 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.36 | $10,706,153,046 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.36 | $10,706,153,046 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.36 | $10,706,063,515 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.36 | $10,706,063,515 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.36 | $10,706,063,515 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.37 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.37 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.37 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.37 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.36 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.36 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.36 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.36 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.36 | $10,701,780,839 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.34 | $10,698,837,982 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.23 | $10,599,236,285 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.18 | $10,530,889,272 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.18 | $10,530,889,272 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.18 | $10,530,889,272 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.05 | $10,474,331,286 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.05 | $10,461,429,716 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.05 | $10,461,429,716 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.