Reading AGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGO free→Reading AGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGO free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may be impacting performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If AGO cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $76 AGO trades at 9× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $84 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.76 → $1.56 (-11.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in claims-paying resources can show financial health and risk.
Confirms:Claims-paying resources were below $10 billion. This shows possible financial strain.
Disproves:Claims-paying resources were above $10 billion. This shows strong financial stability.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 results and the availability of its March 31, 2026 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing earnings per share and operating income per share.
Targeting total revenue of $1.1 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Continue to increase dividends per share over time.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may impact AGO's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show economic problems. This may impact AGO's business.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing. This can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its revenue guidance of $1.1 billion for 2026.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue was over $275 million. This supports the $1.1 billion guidance.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue was under $250 million. This shows challenges in meeting the guidance.
Why it matters: Dividend growth shows how well the company manages its money. It also shows its financial health.
Confirms:There was an increase in dividends for shareholders. This confirms strong capital management.
Disproves:There was a cut or freeze in dividends. This shows possible financial problems.
Why it matters: Changes in adjusted operating income per share can change how investors feel. It can also affect growth.
Confirms:Adjusted operating income per share was over $2.50. This means the company is making more money.
Disproves:Adjusted operating income per share was below $2.00. This means the company is making less money.