AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.49+1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AHCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 88 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AHCO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-07
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 6, 2026, AdaptHealth LLC (the “Issuer”), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of AdaptHealth Corp. (the “Company”), issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) in an aggregate principal amount of $325,000,000 (the “Redemption”), at a redemption price equal to 100% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest on such Notes to, but not including, the redemp…
Why it matters: Better cash flow means more efficiency and better financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is over $175 million. This shows good cash management.
Worry ifFree cash flow is under $175 million. This shows ongoing cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Lowering labor costs will help profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifLabor costs drop sharply from the high $12 million in Q1.
Worry ifLabor costs stay high or rise above current levels.
Why it matters: Strong growth shows AdaptHealth is doing well with its main businesses. It means their services are in demand.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling below this level would show weaker cash flow. This could worry investors about finances.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $80 million for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains at or above $80 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $409 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,099 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows that AdaptHealth's business may be slowing down after strong results.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 10% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth remains above 10% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower debt costs can help make more money and give more financial options.
Supportive ifThe average cost of debt drops by at least 25 basis points after redeeming senior notes.
Worry ifThe cost of debt stays the same or goes up, showing financial pressure.
Why it matters: Improvement in cash flow shows better operational efficiency and financial health. It is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases above $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $90 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is important for financial health. It can help improve credit scores and lower costs.
Supportive ifLook for news on more debt reduction after the $325 million senior notes were paid.
Worry ifNo new debt reduction news in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for funding operations and new projects.
Supportive ifFree cash flow guidance increases from the current range of $80 million to $120 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance is lowered again. This shows challenges in making cash.
Why it matters: Redeeming these notes will lower debt costs. It will also give more financial flexibility.
Supportive ifRedeeming the 6.125% Senior Notes lowers overall debt costs.
Worry ifNot redeeming the notes will lead to higher interest costs.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow means better cash handling and running the business.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More patients mean strong demand for services. This helps revenue growth and market position.
Supportive ifPatient census records for Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, and Wellness at Home continue to rise.
Worry ifPatient census records decline in any of the segments.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money a company makes. If it falls below guidance, it raises worries.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $680 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $680 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Finalizing the sale will confirm AdaptHealth's focus on core segments. It could strengthen their balance sheet.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Diabetes Health business is complete.
Worry ifThe sale of the Diabetes Health business is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating revenue goals shows good performance in operations.
Supportive ifNet revenue reported at or above $2.85 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifNet revenue drops below $2.85 billion. This suggests possible problems in operations.
Why it matters: Reducing debt would make the balance sheet stronger and improve financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt will drop by at least $25 million after refinancing.
Worry ifNo major debt reduction after refinancing would be a bad sign.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA means better performance. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $170 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $160 million.
Why it matters: Redeeming senior notes could lower interest costs. It might also improve cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company redeems the 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028 as planned in August 2026.
Worry ifThe redemption is delayed or canceled. This affects how debt is managed.