AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.41+1.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AHCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 42 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AHCO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Regulation FD. On November 3, 2026, AdaptHealth Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be…
Why it matters: The contract reached full scale, but its transition cut into margins. Lower costs would show the service model is settling in.
Supportive ifA later report says West Coast contract costs are below the $55M hit included in the 2026 outlook.
Worry ifManagement reports costs above the $55M outlook impact. Or it says the contract keeps pressuring margins.
Why it matters: Q2 results cut the 2026 profit outlook after contract and supply costs rose. Q3 results test whether those costs stay within the new plan.
Watch forFull-year adjusted EBITDA stays within $490M–$520M, and Q3 results do not show new cost pressure.
Also watch forManagement lowers the $490M–$520M full-year adjusted EBITDA range again. Or Q3 results point below its low end.
Why it matters: Free cash flow was negative $48.4M year to date, versus positive $73.3M a year earlier. The full-year range tests whether cash flow recovers.
Watch forFull-year free cash flow lands within the $80M–$120M range.
Also watch forManagement cuts the $80M–$120M range, or reported 2026 free cash flow falls below $80M.
Why it matters: Q2 organic revenue grew 15.9%, while Health Care sector growth is slowing. Another positive quarter would show AdaptHealth is still growing.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth is above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue is flat or down year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $457 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,099 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher supply cost already cut the 2026 profit outlook. A smaller hit would ease pressure on earnings.
Worry ifQ3 or later reports show the manufacturer's price increase cost more than the $30M included in the 2026 outlook.
Less concerning ifManagement confirms the price increase costs $30M or less for 2026, with no further cut to the profit outlook.