Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (AII)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.08-7.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.27 → 3.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AII yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $1.02 per share | It keeps paying a steady dividend of $1.02 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $1.00 | Dividend per share: $1.02 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share = $1.02. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. May 14, 20261.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AII is an insurance growth business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a clear turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact and its signal has improved, while underwriting discipline and elevated risk remain important parts of the picture.
The snapshot describes AII as cheap versus peers, but valuation-model confidence is low, so that comparison is uncertain. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low; together, these suggest the evidence does not point to a clearly fragile set of expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026 and voluntary new business policies up 54% year over year in Q2. Management’s policy-growth priority is on track, and the combined ratio improved, though underwriting and capital-return priorities are mixed. Near-term risk is rated quiet, but earnings surprises have been erratic and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued policy growth and disciplined underwriting supported by effective reinsurance. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level are unfavorable risks in the snapshot, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers are favorable signals.
For the next one to three years, AII has a favorable but not risk-free setup: recent execution supports the thesis, while low valuation confidence and possible guidance or rate pressure leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins are stable near $27 million operating income in 2026-Q1. |
| Improving |
| operating income falls below $20 million |
Operating income: $46.424M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $27 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202646,424,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 29% from $62M to $91M quarterly | A primary condition in American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=29% growth from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1. | Intact | quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY | Revenue growth: 54.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=29% growth from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 202654.594021 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.01 → $3.28 · observed estimates
$1.03B → $1.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.01 | $438,103,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.01 | $1,027,429,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.24 | $1,068,747,249 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.27 | $1,092,734,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.27 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.28 | $1,076,952,333 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.