AAR CORP. (AIR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$126.54+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
AIR — business exit
Dated 2026-05-06
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 6, 2026, AAR CORP. (the “Company”) announced a change to its operating segments and the wind-down of its Commercial Programs business. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, our chief operating decision maker (“CODM”) implemented changes in how he organizes the business, allocates resources, and assesses performance. Specifically, the business units within our Integrated Solutions segment have been realigned, resulting in the following changes: · Combine ou…
Why it matters: The wind-down of this segment is crucial for AAR's restructuring. It impacts resource allocation and overall performance.
Worry ifManagement says they are making progress on the wind-down and its effects on finances.
Less concerning ifNo updates or delays in the wind-down process. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows AAR is making more money. This matches management's goal to improve finances.
Supportive ifQ3 gross profit margin is over 12.9%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 12.9%, suggesting challenges in cost control.
Why it matters: The wind-down is key for AAR. It helps them focus on better businesses.
Worry ifAAR sees a big drop in revenue from Commercial Programs. This shows progress in the wind-down.
Less concerning ifRevenue from Commercial Programs stays stable or goes up. This shows slow progress in the wind-down.
Why it matters: A slowdown in this segment may show weak demand or problems after an acquisition.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth in the Parts Supply segment reported below 19% for Q1 FY 2027.
Less concerning ifOrganic sales growth in the Parts Supply segment reported above 23% for Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: A margin below this level may show issues with buying companies and managing costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 12.25% for Q1 FY 2027.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 12.75% for Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: Ending this segment could hurt revenue and profits. It is a top priority for management.
Worry ifRevenue from Commercial Programs drops below $50 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue from Commercial Programs exceeds $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This deal could boost AAR's engineering skills and revenue in aviation.
Supportive ifAAR reports an increase in engineering revenue by at least 15% in the next quarter.
Worry ifEngineering revenue remains flat or declines in the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit margin shows AAR's focus on improving profitability. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases above 16% in Q3 2026, up from 14.3% in Q3 2025.
Worry ifGross profit margin stays under 14% in Q3 2026. This shows ongoing money problems.
Why it matters: A positive net income shows AAR's recovery and growth. It reflects the success of their strategic focus.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 fiscal 2026 exceeds $68 million, continuing the positive trend.
Worry ifNet income goes negative again. This shows a setback in recovery.
Why it matters: An increase in net income shows AAR is recovering well and growing. This helps management's goal to make more money.
Supportive ifNet income is over $68 million in Q3. This shows strong financial performance.
Worry ifNet income falls below $68 million. This shows possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: Weak growth in government contracts could indicate a slowdown in a critical revenue source.
Worry ifGovernment contract growth is above 5%.
Less concerning ifGovernment contract growth is below 5%.
Why it matters: Sales growth below this level may show weak demand or problems after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 sales growth reported below 21%.
Less concerning ifSales growth reported above 23%.
Why it matters: New government contracts would support AAR's strategy and help revenue growth in this area.
Supportive ifNew government contracts worth over $100 million were announced.
Worry ifNo new government contracts announced in the next quarter.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,992 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.