AAR CORP. (AIR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.48-3.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended Revolving Credit Facility On October 23, 2026 (the “ Amendment Closing Date ”), AAR CORP., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into Amendment No. 3 (the “ Revolver Amendment ”) to the Credit Agreement, dated as of December 14, 2022, among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, which governs the Company’s existing revolving credit facility (the “ Existing Revolvin…
Why it matters: AAR plans to use cash from the combined business to cut debt. Falling leverage would show progress toward that plan.
Supportive ifAAR reports net leverage at or below 3.0x within two years after the deal closes.
Worry ifTwo years after closing, net leverage stays above 3.0x or rises from the reported closing level near 3.6x.
Why it matters: The deal is set to raise leverage near 3.6x at closing. A return toward the stated range would show debt is coming down.
Worry ifMore than two years after closing, AAR reports net leverage above 2.5x or higher than at closing.
Less concerning ifAAR reports net leverage at or below 2.5x within two years after closing.
Why it matters: AAR tied the deal's long-term value to higher margins and $75 million in yearly cost savings. Results can test whether that plan is working.
Supportive ifWithin three to four years after closing, AAR reports adjusted EBITDA margins of 19% or higher. It also confirms run-rate savings near $75 million.
Worry ifAt the end of that three-to-four-year window, margins stay below 19%. Or reported run-rate savings are less than $75 million.
Why it matters: AAR set a close target for the quarter ending February 2027. Approval and closing would clear the first step in its plan to add MRO Holdings.
Supportive ifAAR reports that required approvals are in hand and the deal closes by February 28, 2027.
Worry ifAAR reports that the deal missed its closing target, failed approval, or ended.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,803 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.