reAlpha Tech Corp (AIRE)
NASDAQReal EstateSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.50-4.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 94.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIRE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct
Dated 2026-08-25
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in the Introductory Note and
Why it matters: Keeping costs low will help reduce losses. It will show good cost management.
Supportive ifQ3 operating costs stay below $3.5 million.
Worry ifOperating costs go over $3.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing the restructuring on time would show good management and control of costs.
Supportive ifConfirmation that the workforce reduction is completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifDelays in the restructuring process beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower costs show good changes and better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating costs drop more than 23% from last year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating costs drop less than 23% from last year or go up.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector speeds up, it may benefit reAlpha.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the restructuring will show a move to a more efficient model.
Watch forManagement confirms the workforce restructuring is complete by the end of Q2 2026.
Also watch forRestructuring may go into Q3 2026 or face big delays.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would raise worries about the business's growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported down year over year worse than 11%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing. They affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better numbers than the last few quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or bad trends.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve reAlpha's mortgage services. It may also help reach more customers.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of August 2026. It will add in-house underwriting and funding.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond August 2026.
Why it matters: More revenue shows homebuying is picking up. It also supports management's changes.
Supportive ifHomebuying Services revenue increases each quarter. This is a change from the 20% drop in Q2.
Worry ifHomebuying Services revenue keeps falling or stays the same.
Why it matters: If total transaction volume keeps growing, it shows more demand for reAlpha's services.
Supportive ifTotal transaction volume is over $150.4 million. This shows growth from last quarter.
Worry ifTotal transaction volume falls or does not grow much from last quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting the $2 million savings goal would help financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached or exceeded the $2 million savings goal from changes.
Worry ifOperating costs do not fall as expected. This shows restructuring is not working.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$396 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,241 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,650 loss on $10,000 · 96.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.