Air Industries Group (AIRI)
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.61-1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIRI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-24
Entry Into a Definitive Material Agreement. On August 18, 2026, we, Air Industries Group, entered into a Twelfth Amendment to our Loan and Security Agreement with Webster Bank (“Twelfth Amendment”). In the Twelfth Amendment Webster Bank extended the maturity date of the revolving credit and term loans under the Loan and Security Agreement to November 30, 2026. A copy of the Twelfth Amendment is annexed as Exhibit 10.1 and reference is made thereto for the complete terms and conditions of the…
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue goal shows strong growth and success after the merger.
Supportive ifIn 2026, pro-forma revenues were more than $210 million.
Worry ifIn 2026, pro-forma revenues were less than $210 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA goal means better profits and more efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 was more than $75 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 was less than $75 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue goal after the merger is key for growth. It shows good integration.
Supportive ifPro-forma revenue is over $210 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifPro-forma revenue is below $210 million. This shows integration problems.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA is key to reaching the $75 million goal. It shows improved cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than -$500,000 in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA reported worse than -$500,000 in Q2.
Why it matters: The SEC's review is key to finalizing the merger with Tenax Aerospace. Delays could impact the merger timeline.
Supportive ifThe SEC will make the S-4 registration statement effective before the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe SEC review extends beyond the end of Q3 2026, delaying the merger further.
Why it matters: Shareholder approval is critical for closing the merger. Without it, growth targets may falter.
Supportive ifShareholders approve the merger in a meeting after the SEC review.
Worry ifShareholders reject the merger proposal or fail to reach a quorum for the vote.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is key for growth and meeting NYSE listing requirements. It could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe merger closes successfully by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or fails to close by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This revenue figure is a key step toward the $210 million target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $25 million. This shows progress toward the $210 million goal.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $25 million. This shows ongoing difficulty in growing.
Why it matters: The SEC's review affects the timing of the merger. Delays could impact future growth plans.
Supportive ifThe SEC makes the Registration Statement effective before the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe SEC review takes longer than expected. This delays the merger past November 30, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,446 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.