Air T Inc (AIRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.14-1.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 116.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
AIRT — government funding
Dated 2026-09-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment No. 7 to Alerus Credit Agreement and Related Notes On September 1, 2026, Air’Zona Aircraft Services, Inc., CSA Air, Inc., Global Ground Support, LLC, Jet Yard, LLC, Jet Yard Solutions, LLC, Mountain Air Cargo, Inc., Worldwide Aircraft Services, Inc., Royal Aircraft Services, LLC and Worthington Aviation, LLC, each a subsidiary or affiliate of Air T, Inc. (collectively, the “Alerus Borrowers”), together with Air T, Inc. (the “Company”), in i…
Why it matters: The delayed order was cited as a main reason for lower GGS sales. Its arrival could lift revenue and help restore segment earnings.
Supportive ifGGS reports the annual U.S. military order in fiscal 2027 Q3, and quarterly revenue rises above the first-quarter $3.7 million.
Worry ifThe order is not reported in fiscal 2027 Q3, or GGS revenue stays at or below $3.7 million.
Why it matters: Company adjusted EBITDA fell to $0.8 million from $1.5 million a year ago. A higher result would show a rebound despite weak sector signals.
Watch forThe Nov. 11 report shows adjusted EBITDA above $0.8 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026.
Also watch forThe Nov. 11 report shows adjusted EBITDA at or below $0.8 million, or a larger year-over-year drop than the first-quarter 45%.
Why it matters: Rex had 32 active aircraft, below its growth goal. More aircraft in service could lift flights and revenue.
Supportive ifA company update shows over 32 active Rex aircraft. Fewer engine delays mean more aircraft fly scheduled routes.
Worry ifRex remains at 32 or fewer active aircraft, or engine delays cut the number flying scheduled routes.
Why it matters: Rex posted $1.9 million in adjusted EBITDA, but fuel costs and aircraft downtime remain a strain. Another positive quarter would show progress.
Supportive ifRex reports adjusted EBITDA above $1.9 million again. Fuel costs or aircraft downtime ease.
Worry ifRex adjusted EBITDA falls below zero. Its next report names higher fuel costs or aircraft downtime as key causes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $582 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,504 loss on $10,000 · 25.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.