Air T Inc (AIRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.75-3.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 103.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AIRT — government funding
Dated 2026-09-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment No. 7 to Alerus Credit Agreement and Related Notes On September 1, 2026, Air’Zona Aircraft Services, Inc., CSA Air, Inc., Global Ground Support, LLC, Jet Yard, LLC, Jet Yard Solutions, LLC, Mountain Air Cargo, Inc., Worldwide Aircraft Services, Inc., Royal Aircraft Services, LLC and Worthington Aviation, LLC, each a subsidiary or affiliate of Air T, Inc. (collectively, the “Alerus Borrowers”), together with Air T, Inc. (the “Company”), in i…
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing. If growth re-accelerates, it could benefit Air T's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to under 5% each year.
Why it matters: New debt could impact the company's financial health and ability to pay bills.
Worry ifTotal debt decreases or remains stable after the July 10, 2026 issuance.
Less concerning ifTotal debt will rise well above the $8 million raised on July 10, 2026.
Why it matters: The purchase could help growth. Watching revenue changes will show how well it works.
Supportive ifRevenue from aviation services increases by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from aviation services decreases or stays flat in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completion of this acquisition is key for Air T's growth strategy. It shows how well they manage new assets.
Supportive ifArena Aviation Partners is now part of Air T's operations. This is confirmed by a press release.
Worry ifThere is a delay in adding Arena Aviation Partners to Air T's business.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $572 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,832 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New debt could affect financial health. Monitoring obligations will show how well they manage it.
Worry ifManagement may report lower financial duties or better cash flow in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifFinancial obligations increase or cash flow worsens in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: If Arena integrates well, Crestone could manage more assets and earn more money.
Supportive ifCrestone reports higher fees from Arena. It expects positive adjusted EBITDA in the next two quarters.
Worry ifCrestone still shows operating losses. It generates very few fees from Arena.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA would mean the company is more efficient. It would also show better cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA exceeds $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA remains below $800,000 for the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Overnight air cargo is a key segment for Air T. Changes in revenue will indicate operational health and demand.
Supportive ifOvernight air cargo revenue increases by at least 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOvernight air cargo revenue decreases or remains flat in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If Rex keeps revenue steady, it may show a recovery in operations. This could mean more demand for flights.
Supportive ifRex reports revenue growth exceeding $60 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifRex's revenue drops or stays below $55 million for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition is important for Air T's growth. It shows they want to expand.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is confirmed completed as of June 16, 2026.
Worry ifLook for any delays or problems with the acquisition process.
Why it matters: How Air T handles its debts affects its stability and growth.
Worry ifA report shows less debt or better debt numbers.
Less concerning ifA report shows more debt or missed payments.