Airship AI Holdings, Inc. (AISP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.05-2.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AISP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 83.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 100.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AISP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
is incorporated herein by reference. The information in Items 2.02 and 7.01 (including Exhibit 99.1) are “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of such section nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such f…
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in Airship AI's growth amid a decelerating sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues after a Q1 earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, net revenues are over $6.3 million. This shows growth.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, net revenues are below $6.3 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A smaller loss means better financial health and good cost management.
Supportive ifOperating loss was less than $1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating loss remains above $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New awards from DHS could lead to big revenue growth for Airship AI.
Supportive ifNew contract awards from DHS are over $3 million.
Worry ifNo new big contract awards from DHS show procurement challenges.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $804 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,550 loss on $10,000 · 75.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management wants to take advantage of business growth. Progress shows potential for growth and trust from investors.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of a new partnership or contract. This will help business growth.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or contracts are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for long-term sustainability and growth. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is positive. This shows better financial health.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still negative. This shows ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for Airship AI's solutions.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to over $4.6 million, showing strong contract awards.
Worry ifIf backlog drops or stays under $4.6 million, it shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forQ2 earnings are better than expected. This shows a recovery from the last miss.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss again. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: If the Information Technology sector grows again, it may help AISP's future.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up toward past highs. This boosts positive feelings.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping cash flow usage steady is key to being cash flow positive by year-end.
Watch forNet cash used in operations stays below $200,000 in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet cash used in operations goes over $300,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on cash flow will indicate progress toward the 2025 goal.
Supportive ifManagement provides a clear plan to achieve positive cash flow in 2025.
Worry ifNo updates or a lack of clarity on cash flow goals after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Progress toward positive cash flow is critical for the company's financial health. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities improves to less than -$2M in Q4 2025.
Worry ifCash from operating activities remains worse than -$3M in Q4 2025.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Airship AI's performance. It signals a potential slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Ongoing earnings misses may show deeper problems in the company.
Worry ifAnother earnings report shows a miss or negative guidance for future quarters.
Less concerning ifThe earnings report does better than expected or gives good news.
Why it matters: New contracts from the Department of Homeland Security could increase revenue. They support growth plans.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contract awards exceeding $5 million from DHS in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new contract awards from DHS in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better gross margins help reach cash flow positive operations by year-end.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q3 2026 is over 75%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin in Q3 2026 is below 50%. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future revenue potential. It shows high demand for services.
Supportive ifBacklog exceeds $7 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog remains below $6 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships can enhance market presence and drive sales growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new partnerships with integrators in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in Q3 2026.