Airship AI Holdings, Inc. (AISP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.74-5.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AISP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
AISP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
is incorporated herein by reference. The information in Items 2.02 and 7.01 (including Exhibit 99.1) are “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of such section nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such f…
Why it matters: Integrators moved some active bids to Airship AI as their lead offer. New awards would show that partner training is bringing in business.
Supportive ifA company update reports a new contract award after integrator training. The award is commercial or led by a partner.
Worry ifThe next earnings report cites partner training but reports no new partner-led awards or sales.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was $4.12 million, down from $6.3 million in Q1. The next report can show whether revenue has picked up.
Watch forThe Nov. 13 report shows revenue above $4.12 million and above the same quarter a year earlier.
Also watch forThe Nov. 13 report shows revenue below $4.12 million or a year-over-year decline.
Why it matters: The first vehicle-based deployment tests if Airship AI can serve moving teams, not just fixed sites.
Supportive ifA company update reports a second Outpost AI Sentinel deployment. Or it reports a paid follow-on order for mobile use.
Worry ifThe next company update reports no further Sentinel deployment. Or it says the first deployment ended without more work.
Why it matters: Management said several large DHS opportunities may close in Q3. Awards would show that funding is turning into sales.
Supportive ifA company filing or release reports new DHS awards in Q3. It states the contract value when available.
Worry ifQ3 ends with no reported DHS awards, or management says the large pursuits moved to a later period.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $784 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,042 loss on $10,000 · 60.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 margin rose to 75% from 50% in Q1. Management tied higher margins to more branded hardware and software sales.
Watch forThe next results show gross margin at or above 75%, with more branded hardware and software sales cited as a cause.
Also watch forThe next results show gross margin below 50%, or a sharp drop in branded solution sales.
Why it matters: Cash flow was negative $235,000 in Q2. Management aims to make operations cash-flow positive by the end of 2026.
Supportive ifA report before or at year-end shows positive cash from operations.
Worry ifThe year-end report shows cash from operations is still negative. Or management drops its end-of-2026 goal.