Reading AIT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AIT free→Reading AIT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AIT free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $320.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $320 AIT trades at 30× p/e, in line with its 27× p/e peer median. Our $288 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.92 → $2.92 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,286.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 28.9 points (from 2.7 to 31.6).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 6% would signal a positive trend in a maturing sector. It shows the company is gaining market share.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 28, 2026, Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (“Applied”) issued a press release related to its earnings for the fiscal year 2026 third quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Report on Form 8-K, including the Exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AIT Applied Industrial Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has announced a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to 3 million shares.
The company aims to increase its revenue, as reflected in its updated guidance.
The company is focused on improving its gross profit as part of its operational priorities.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show how management is using cash. This can affect share value positively.
Confirms:Management says they have bought back a large part of the 3 million shares.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins mean improved cost management. This can lead to more profits.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margin is lower than last quarter.
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE. On April 22, 2026, Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.’s Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to 3.0 million shares of the Company's common stock. Purchases can be made in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The authorization is in effect until all shares are purchased, or the Board of Directors revokes or amends the authorization.