AKA BRANDS HOLDING CORP (AKA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.96-1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AKA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AKA — director transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — Ilene Eskenazi: Ilene Eskenazi resigned as a director, and Carrie Cassidy was appointed to replace her.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is running well and making money.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive for Q3. This shows good operational strength.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is negative in Q3. This raises worries about finances.
Why it matters: Sticking to capex guidance shows the company is spending wisely. This is important during tough growth.
Supportive ifCapex reported at or below $20M.
Worry ifCapex reported above $22M.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows improved inventory management and pricing. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 63.1% in Q2.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 63.1% in Q2.
Why it matters: Opening these stores shows the company wants to grow and increase sales.
Supportive ifFour new U.S. stores are opened by the end of 2026, confirming retail expansion efforts.
Worry ifFewer than four new U.S. stores open by year-end, indicating potential delays in expansion plans.
Why it matters: This report will show how revenue and profits are doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and positive EBITDA.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue is down and EBITDA is negative.
Why it matters: How much people spend affects retail sales and how well the company does.
Watch forGDP report shows consumer spending growth above 2%.
Also watch forGDP report shows consumer spending growth below 0%.
Why it matters: More customers show good marketing and brand appeal. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifActive customer growth reported above 3.1% in Q2.
Worry ifActive customer growth reported below 3.1% in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this sales target is key to achieving full year guidance of $625-$635 million.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at $160 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 net sales reported below $160 million.
Why it matters: This result would support the full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $30-$32 million.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was $8 million or more for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $8 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels can show better management. They can also lead to higher profits.
Supportive ifInventory reported below $80 million at the end of Q3.
Worry ifInventory reported above $80 million at the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Successful openings would show the company's plan to grow its retail business.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of four new Princess Polly stores opened in the U.S. by December 2026.
Worry ifNo new Princess Polly stores opened by year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $645 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,235 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.