Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aktis Oncology, Inc. (AKTS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.85-2.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AKTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage operating losses near $22.7M and net losses near $18.3M in early 2026 | A primary condition in Aktis Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss about -$22.7M and net loss about -$18.3M in 2026-Q1. | Broken | Losses grow materially beyond 2026-Q1 levels without revenue growth | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development company, not a proven earnings compounder. The multi-year view is still insufficiently clear because recent financial history is limited, despite management reporting progress on its clinical plans.
The available valuation signal suggests expectations are demanding relative to the model, with a negative expectations gap; the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The evidence does not provide peer valuation comparisons, so whether AKTS is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed.
Near term, results carry meaningful uncertainty: the estimated miss probability is 45%, and the company had an earnings miss in May followed by an in-line report in August. Over the multi-year view, management says the Phase 1b program is progressing as planned, with preliminary data expected in 2027, while cash was $517.3 million in 2026-Q2 and management expects funding to last into 2029.
The clinical thesis hinges on advancing the planned Phase 1b trials and producing useful preliminary data in 2027. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued weakness in jobs data could weigh on cyclical and healthcare names; stronger results and guidance from healthcare leaders could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AKTS remains a high-risk clinical-development story with a stated funding runway and planned trial progress, but limited financial history leaves the thesis state uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026, are expected to fund the Company’s operating plan into 2029.” “The Company’s cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of March 31, 2026 are expected to fund its operations into 2029.” Operating cash flow was $-24.242 million in 2026-Q1.
Initiate Phase 1b basket trial by Q3 2026 and report data in Q1 2027 | It expects early trial data in 2027. | Intact | Trial initiation delayed beyond 2026-Q3 or no data by 2027-Q1 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Anticipated milestones for the next 12 months • AKY-1189: o Expect preliminary data from the ongoing Phase 1b NECTINIUM-2 clinical trial in the first quarter of 2027.” “• AKY-2519: o Expect to commence Phase 1b BActinium-2 basket trial in lung and other B7-H3 expressing solid tumor cancers in the second half of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Enhance board expertise with new directors and science committees | New science leaders joined to improve research. | Intact | Loss of key science leaders or committee disbandment | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.09 → $-2.25 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.97 | $11,550,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.09 | $15,614,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.15 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.21 | $12,922,256 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.26 | $13,001,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.25 | $13,668,033 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.