Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$310.40+9.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALAB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-10
Chief Financial Officer — Michael Tate: Michael Tate retired as Chief Financial Officer and will transition to a Strategic Advisor role until September 1, 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Astera Labs' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for Astera Labs reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Getting the Scorpio X-Series up and running is key for revenue growth and market share.
Supportive ifThe Scorpio X-Series 320-lane fabric switches are meeting their production goals.
Worry ifProduction ramp fails to meet targets or delays occur.
Why it matters: This range shows if Astera Labs can keep its strong growth trend. Meeting this target would confirm ongoing demand for their AI fabric products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $540 million to $560 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $540 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining this margin shows Astera Labs can manage costs while growing. A drop below this range could signal issues in cost management.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported at or above 72%.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin falls below 72%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$371 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,126 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,019 loss on $10,000 · 60.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The success of this ramp is key to revenue growth. If production delays occur, it could hurt revenue expectations.
Supportive ifScorpio X-Series production is moving faster than planned.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays in production. Output is lower than expected.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows strong profits. Missing it may worry investors about earnings.
Supportive ifGAAP diluted EPS reported within the range of $0.87 to $0.92.
Worry ifGAAP diluted EPS falls below $0.87.