Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$179.47-19.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 81.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALAB — officer change
Dated 2026-11-04
Director — Michael Hurlston: The filing reports the resignation of a board director, which is a departure from the board but typically carries lower materiality than the departure of a C-suite executive.
Why it matters: This checks whether the rapid growth and Scorpio ramp match the company’s latest sales outlook.
Watch forQ3 revenue is above $560 million.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $540 million.
Why it matters: Broader P-Series sales could add to the company’s AI fabric growth. Delays would weaken that path.
Supportive ifThe company reports shipments of several P-Series versions in the second half of 2026. It also reports a wider volume ramp in 2027.
Worry ifThe company says P-Series shipments to multiple customers have slipped. The planned 2027 volume ramp has also slipped.
Why it matters: Scorpio is set to become the company’s largest product family. Strong sales would support its new AI fabric growth story.
Supportive ifQ3 results name Scorpio X-Series as the largest product family. Revenue is $540 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $540 million, or the company says the Scorpio X-Series production ramp slipped.
Why it matters: This is a clear test of the profit outlook after Q2 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.83.
Watch forQ3 GAAP diluted EPS is above $0.92.
Also watch forQ3 GAAP diluted EPS is below $0.87.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$340 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,147 loss on $10,000 · 11.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,378 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gross margin fell from 76.3% in Q1 to 73.3% in Q2. The next result tests whether it stays near management’s guide.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP gross margin is below 70%.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP gross margin is 72% or higher.