Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$179.47-19.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.48 → 6.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALAB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS between $0.44 and $0.46 in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Astera Labs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $0.44-$0.46. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.44 in 2026-Q2 | Diluted EPS: $0.99 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.44-$0.46. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.99 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth technology business whose multi-year view depends on continued demand for AI fabric and switch products. The thesis is intact, with strong recent performance and stable management, but risk is high and the valuation is expensive versus peers.
The valuation premium versus peers is supported by expectations for future product growth, or optionality, but confidence in that premium is low. The valuation measure fell recently, while the evidence does not specify how much future growth the market assumes.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong, and management's AI fabric and Scorpio X-Series priorities remain on track. Gross margin has eased and is expected to normalize further, while product expansion is progressing unevenly. The estimated risk of a near-term miss is low, though recent industry misses and a past deep miss remain cautions.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth from AI fabric and switch ramps while margins stay near management's stated range. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the case; steady guidance from major technology peers or rate cuts could improve the sector backdrop, but neither is assured.
Over the next one to three years, ALAB's strong operating trajectory supports an intact long-term thesis, but an expensive valuation and high risk leave little room for execution to falter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets $355M-$365M revenue and 73% gross margin in 2026-Q2. |
| Broken |
| Gross margin falls below 70% in 2026-Q2 |
Gross margin: 72.28% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 73%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202672.277778 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful adoption of Scorpio network switch products | New Scorpio switching products support growth. | Intact | Failure to gain market traction or revenue from Scorpio products | Q4 rev $730M-$750M vs sustained adoption target Q4 revenue guidance of $730M-$750M explicitly driven by Scorpio X-Series expansion; recent earnings beat confirms strong AI demand. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $355M and $365M in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Astera Labs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $355M-$365M. | Broken | Revenue falls below $355M in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $584.899M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $355M-$365M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026584,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.53 → $6.51 · observed estimates
$2.24B → $3.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.53 | $2,235,197,230 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.71 | $2,262,744,991 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.56 | $2,243,809,410 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.63 | $2,260,771,910 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.63 | $2,260,771,910 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.63 | $2,260,771,910 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.69 | $2,290,348,660 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.69 | $2,290,348,660 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.26 | $2,936,724,210 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.26 | $2,936,724,210 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.26 | $2,936,724,210 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.26 | $2,936,724,210 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.39 | $2,972,720,400 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.39 | $2,972,720,400 | 23 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.35 | $2,960,708,747 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.39 | $3,041,181,861 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.39 | $3,041,181,861 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.39 | $3,041,181,861 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.39 | $3,041,181,861 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.49 | $3,078,571,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.48 | $3,079,090,922 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.49 | $3,082,954,559 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.49 | $3,082,954,559 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.49 | $3,082,954,559 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.49 | $3,082,956,154 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.51 | $3,097,038,286 | 15 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.