Alector, Inc. (ALEC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.46-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -60.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALEC — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-07-08
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Alector, Inc. (the “Company”) was developing the investigational progranulin-elevating monoclonal antibodies, latozinemab and nivisnebart, in collaboration with Glaxo Wellcome UK Limited (“GSK”), under the Collaboration and License Agreement between the parties, dated as of July 1, 2021, and as amended on May 19, 2023 (the “GSK Agreement”). On October 21, 2025, the Company announced that the Phase 3 INFRONT-3 clinical trial evaluating latozinema…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing financially and what to expect.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and positive outlook.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline and negative outlook.
Why it matters: It is important to watch cash position. It affects Alector's ability to fund operations through 2027.
Worry ifAlector has cash reserves over $150 million after Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash reserves drop below $150 million. This shows faster cash burn.
Why it matters: Updates may affect Alector's future plans and revenue. This could change investor views.
Watch forA new partnership or collaboration might take the place of the GSK agreement.
Also watch forNo new partnerships were announced, which may slow growth plans.
Why it matters: Details on debt issuance will explain financial strategy and cash management. It affects investor trust.
Watch forManagement has clear plans for using the $125M debt wisely.
Also watch forManagement fails to address the purpose of the debt issuance or raises concerns about cash flow.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$324 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $826 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,566 loss on $10,000 · 65.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash is important for Alector's work. A big drop could mean money problems.
Worry ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments remain above $150 million at the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments fall below $150 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping cash available is key for Alector's work. Updates will show financial health.
Watch forAlector confirms cash runway extends through 2027 in Q2 2026.
Also watch forAlector revises cash runway guidance to less than 2027 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower expenses will help Alector keep its cash. It shows better cost control.
Supportive ifGeneral and administrative expenses were down at least 10% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifGeneral and administrative costs were the same or higher than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in AL050 may help Alector's research on Parkinson's disease.
Supportive ifAlector shares good preclinical results for AL050 by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or negative results for AL050 preclinical studies by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The IND submission is a key step for AL137's development in Alzheimer's treatment. Success could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAlector files the IND application for AL137 on time in Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe IND submission is delayed beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: A decline in cash could signal financial strain and impact ongoing projects. Maintaining cash is crucial for operations.
Worry ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments remain at or above $172.8 million.
Less concerning ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments fall below $172.8 million.
Why it matters: Collaboration revenue helps with funding. An increase may show better partnerships.
Supportive ifCollaboration revenue in Q3 2026 is more than $3.3 million.
Worry ifCollaboration revenue in Q3 2026 is less than $3.3 million.