Alector, Inc. (ALEC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.09-8.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
ALEC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 15, 2026, Alector, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and BTIG, LLC (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the issuance and sale (the “Offering”) of 36,600,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at an offering price of $2.05 per share. All of the Shares in the Offering are being…
Why it matters: A timely filing would move Alector’s lead brain-delivery program toward human testing. A delay would push that milestone back.
Supportive ifAlector files the AL137 IND in Q1 2027 and keeps first dosing on track by April 2027.
Worry ifAlector reports that the IND filing moved past Q1 2027 or first dosing moved past April 2027.
Why it matters: A longer runway could fund Alector’s own programs without near-term cash pressure. The October share sale also added new shares.
Watch forAlector confirms the $75.03 million share sale closed. It reports cash support through 2029.
Also watch forAlector reports the sale failed to close, or later cash guidance no longer reaches 2029.
Why it matters: The September cash figure reflects the period before the announced share sale proceeds. A lower final balance could point to faster cash use.
Worry ifThe next filing confirms September 30 cash near $138.7 million before the share sale proceeds.
Less concerning ifThe next filing shows September 30 cash well above $138.7 million, or explains a lower cash use rate.
Why it matters: Starting these studies would move Alector’s tau program closer to human testing. A pause would slow a key wholly owned program.
Supportive ifAlector reports that AL164 has entered studies to prepare for an IND. It names a planned IND filing date.
Worry ifAlector reports that AL164 has not entered studies to prepare for an IND, or that it has paused the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$348 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $826 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,861 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.