Alamo Group (ALG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$173.56+1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On May 27, 2026, Alamo Group Inc. (the “Company”), as the borrower, and each of its domestic subsidiaries as guarantors, entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “2026 Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as Administrative Agent. The 2026 Credit Agreement provides the Company with the ability to request loans and other financial obligations in an aggregate amount of up to…
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved performance. It supports growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $30 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains below $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that the company is on track with its growth strategy. A decline would raise concerns about market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 6.7% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 3% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health and care for shareholders. Cuts might mean trouble.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.34 or increases in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is cut below $0.34 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good integration from this acquisition can help future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will get at least $5 million in annual synergies from Petersen by Q4.
Worry ifThere are no updates on benefits or delays in integration by Q4.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the quarterly dividend will be more than $0.34 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend at $0.34 per share with no increases.
Why it matters: Success from the Petersen deal can improve performance and market share.
Watch forQ3 results show Petersen added at least 5% to overall sales.
Also watch forQ3 results show Petersen did not help, with flat sales growth.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show management's trust in cash flow and finances. Keeping or raising dividends is a good sign.
Watch forManagement announces an increase in the dividend per share in the next quarter.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this division supports overall revenue targets and shows market demand. Investors will look for continued momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth in the Industrial Equipment Division exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth in the Industrial Equipment Division falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and operations. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 15% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 14% in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,245 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.