Alamo Group (ALG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$136.54-5.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 46 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 2, 2026, Alamo Group Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), issued a press release announcing, among other things, financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The foregoing description is qualified by reference to such exhibit.
Why it matters: Industrial Equipment sales rose 12.8% in Q2, helped by organic demand and Petersen. A sharp slowdown would weaken the division's growth signal.
Worry ifIndustrial Equipment sales grow less than 5% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifIndustrial Equipment sales grow at least 10% from a year ago. The report shows growth from existing sales and from acquisitions.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow was $22.7 million in the first half, while the company spent on deals and returned $19.0 million. More cash flow would support both uses.
Worry ifFull-year operating cash flow tops the first-half pace of $22.7 million. It covers dividends, share repurchases, and interest paid.
Less concerning ifFull-year operating cash flow is $22.7 million or less. Or the company uses new borrowing to fund shareholder returns.
Why it matters: Alamo has bought two businesses in 2026. Clear cost savings or sales gains would show that these deals are adding value beyond their size.
Supportive ifManagement reports savings from Petersen or Econ. Industrial Equipment sales or margins rise from the same period last year.
Worry ifManagement reports no savings from the deals. Or Industrial Equipment margins fall from the same quarter last year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $290 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,738 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.