Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. (ALH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.61-1.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.49 → 1.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA growth of at least 7% | A primary condition in Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA growth has been raised to +8% to 10%, from the prior range of +7% to 8%, as the Company realizes the benefit of price and volume increases alongside the realization of continued cost-down initiatives.” “Adjusted EBITDA growth guidance has been raised to +7% to 8%, from the prior range of +6% to 8%, as the Company realizes price and volume increases alongside continued cost-down initiatives.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ALH is a growth-oriented business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by improving momentum and steady management execution. The main counterweight is a stretched valuation and moderate business risk.
ALH is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation signal is stretched, while the expectations gap is modest. This suggests the market already reflects much of the recent improvement, leaving less room for execution to fall short without affecting the thesis.
Near term, management’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities are on track: the latest quarter showed 7% revenue growth and 12% adjusted EBITDA growth, and full-year guidance has been maintained or raised. Debt repayment has reduced net leverage, though reaching the year-end target remains in progress. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but past misses and recent peer weakness remain reasons for attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth guidance of 6%-7%, adjusted EBITDA growth guidance of 8%-10%, and continued balance-sheet improvement. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative. Continued strength from sector bellwethers MOD and PLOW could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could remove that support.
As of 2026-10-31, ALH’s operating progress supports an intact 1-3 year long-term thesis, but its stretched valuation raises the importance of continued delivery. The main swing factors are company guidance and the direction of sector peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Effective management of executive transitions | A supporting condition in Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful COO transition without disruption. | Intact | Executive transitions cause operational disruption or leadership instability | COO transition completed without disruption COO transition announced June 2026; Q2 2026 earnings beat with raised guidance, indicating no leadership instability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Press Release - Leadership Transition FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 2, 2026 Alliance Laundry Holdings Announces Leadership Transition for COO International and Investor Relations RIPON, WI, June 2, 2026, Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ALH) (“Alliance” or the “Company”), the world’s premier provider of commercial laundry systems, today announced that Jan Vleugels, Chief Operating Officer International, will retire effective September 30, 2026, following more than a decade of distinguished service.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Full-year revenue growth of at least 6% | A primary condition in Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20266.612714 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue growth guidance versus prior year remains at +6% to 7%.” “Revenue growth guidance has been raised to +6% to 7%, from the prior range of +5% to 7%, with equal contribution expected from volume and price.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.46 → $1.49 · observed estimates
$1.94B → $1.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.46 | $1,939,812,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.46 | $1,939,812,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.46 | $1,939,812,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.46 | $1,939,812,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.46 | $1,939,789,050 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.46 | $1,940,458,130 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.46 | $1,939,787,055 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.48 | $1,932,541,830 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.48 | $1,932,508,834 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.48 | $1,932,508,834 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.48 | $1,932,508,834 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.49 | $1,935,566,686 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.49 | $1,935,541,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.49 | $1,935,508,541 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.49 | $1,935,682,491 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.