Alkermes plc (ALKS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.10-1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALKS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $38 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $54–$65. Note: our $38 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($54–$65). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $63.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $30.40 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $33.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$54.00 – $65.00 (median $63.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-28
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 41% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.01/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $10.56 |
| 8.9 |
| 0.87 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $18.05 | 14.1 | 1.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $18.02 | 10.9 | 1.65 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $27.93 | 2.9 | 9.61 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $13.95 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $48.34 | 26.3 | 1.84 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $32.84 | 16.1 | 2.04 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $25.16 | 14.1 | 1.78 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $21.37 | 10.9 | 1.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $34.91 | 2.9 | 12.02 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $47.63 | 26.3 | 1.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $31.39 | 14.1 | 2.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $23.14 | 10.9 | 2.12 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $37.79 | 2.9 | 13.01 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $47.17 | 26.3 | 1.80 | Analyst | high |