Alkermes plc (ALKS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.54-2.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALKS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Facilities On August 12, 2026, Alkermes plc (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 1 to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement, dated as of February 12, 2026 (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as the TopCo Borrower, Alkermes, Inc., as the U.S. Borrower, Alkermes Finance LLC, as the U.S. Co-Borrower, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent, Joint Lead Arranger and Joint Bookrunn…
Why it matters: The Phase 1b results were early and exploratory. The larger Phase 2 trial tests symptom change against placebo over four weeks.
Watch forThe company says the roughly 312-person trial is enrolling on time. It later reports AISRS improvement over placebo at week four.
Also watch forEnrollment is late, the trial misses its week-four AISRS goal, or safety issues limit dosing.
Why it matters: LYBALVI sales rose 12% year over year in Q2, while total prescriptions rose 18%. Q3 can show if that growth continues.
Watch forQ3 LYBALVI sales and total prescriptions both rise year over year, with sales growth at or above Q2’s 12%.
Also watch forQ3 LYBALVI sales or total prescriptions fall year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose year over year, but the full-year range stayed at $370 million to $410 million. Q3 can test that range.
Watch forQ3 results keep the company on pace for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $370 million to $410 million, with no cut to the range.
Also watch forThe company cuts the $370 million low end or Q3 results put the range at risk.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,923 loss on $10,000 · 29.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.