Alkermes plc (ALKS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.10-1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
ALKS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Facilities On August 12, 2026, Alkermes plc (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 1 to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement, dated as of February 12, 2026 (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as the TopCo Borrower, Alkermes, Inc., as the U.S. Borrower, Alkermes Finance LLC, as the U.S. Co-Borrower, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent, Joint Lead Arranger and Joint Bookrunn…
Why it matters: Filing for LUMRYZ in idiopathic hypersomnia could grow its market. This supports Alkermes' plans in sleep medicine.
Supportive ifSubmission of the supplemental NDA for LUMRYZ to the FDA by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo filing occurs by the end of 2026 or delays are announced.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is more efficient and financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If Q3 revenue is over $500 million, it shows strong growth for Alkermes. This backs ongoing growth stories.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue was over $500 million.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues fall below $496 million.
Why it matters: The first data for ALKS 7290 will show progress in ADHD treatment. This could boost investor confidence in Alkermes' pipeline.
Supportive ifALKS 7290 shows strong results in ADHD treatment.
Worry ifData shows no strong results or negative findings.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,220 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The results will show how well LUMRYZ works for idiopathic hypersomnia. This could change its market potential a lot.
Supportive ifA press release or presentation will share the results from the REVITALYZ study.
Worry ifNo detailed results are released by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows good sales and market support. A slowdown may worry about product demand.
Watch forQuarterly revenue growth continues above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in LUMRYZ sales will show market acceptance and support the Avadel purchase.
Supportive ifLUMRYZ revenues for Q2 2026 exceed $50 million.
Worry ifLUMRYZ revenues for Q2 2026 fall below $30 million.
Why it matters: Updates on alixorexton trials will indicate progress in a key growth area. This could impact future revenues.
Watch forThe alixorexton clinical trials have good news. They show strong results for narcolepsy.
Also watch forThe alixorexton clinical trials have bad news. There are delays in development.
Why it matters: Sales of proprietary products are growing. This shows strong demand and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifProprietary product revenues grow by more than 15% each year.
Worry ifProprietary product revenues fall or grow less than 5% each year.